An SPX Major Cycle High Might Have Occurred TODAY 12-4-09
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 TODAY 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike today, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again today 12-4-09, like it did yesterday (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares yesterday 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with today probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 today/on 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is VERY BEARISH, since WMT's leading to the downside by more than -1.00%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at very bearish today (-1.00% to -1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a bearish -0.92% vs SPX today 12-4-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX weakness tomorrow/Monday (WMT looks like it might decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), because, it's in bearish territory (-0.50% to -0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose dramatically today 12-4-09 after an early sharp decline, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Monday, because, it's a rapid unusually large rise in fear (a normal/typical sized rise in fear is a bullish indication), and, it fell substantially late in the session, which is another bearish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from Monday 11-30-09 to very early today 12-4-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency (it's actually very short term bullish (rapid unusually large rise in complacency), but, short term it's extremely bearish; keep in mind that cycles are primary, and, SPX has been rolling over dramatically in recent weeks), see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was down -5.39% vs SPX up +0.55% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Monday 12-7-09, because, it's a +4.84% rise in complacency/-4.84% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap (1095.63) filling action is likely early on Monday.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at positive today (NYSE up vs down volume is backwards), which is a bullish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX appears to have peaked at 1119.13 very early today, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Important tomorrow/Monday probably will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1095.63 from Tuesday 12-1-09's open (session cycle low at 1093ish is likely tomorrow/Monday), see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When the 1095.63 downside gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen four times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again today 12-4-09, like it did yesterday (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares yesterday 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with today probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 today/on 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is VERY BEARISH, since WMT's leading to the downside by more than -1.00%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at very bearish today (-1.00% to -1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a bearish -0.92% vs SPX today 12-4-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX weakness tomorrow/Monday (WMT looks like it might decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), because, it's in bearish territory (-0.50% to -0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose dramatically today 12-4-09 after an early sharp decline, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Monday, because, it's a rapid unusually large rise in fear (a normal/typical sized rise in fear is a bullish indication), and, it fell substantially late in the session, which is another bearish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from Monday 11-30-09 to very early today 12-4-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency (it's actually very short term bullish (rapid unusually large rise in complacency), but, short term it's extremely bearish; keep in mind that cycles are primary, and, SPX has been rolling over dramatically in recent weeks), see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was down -5.39% vs SPX up +0.55% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Monday 12-7-09, because, it's a +4.84% rise in complacency/-4.84% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap (1095.63) filling action is likely early on Monday.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at positive today (NYSE up vs down volume is backwards), which is a bullish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX appears to have peaked at 1119.13 very early today, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Important tomorrow/Monday probably will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1095.63 from Tuesday 12-1-09's open (session cycle low at 1093ish is likely tomorrow/Monday), see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When the 1095.63 downside gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen four times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:53 PM
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