SPX Has a Downtrend Since 11-16-09's 1113.69 Cycle High
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has a downtrend since 11-16's 1113.69 cycle high, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT. The long extremely flat downtrend from 11-16-09 until 11-25-09 is the flat part of what's likely to be a very large downcycle. There's a good chance that SPX's major upcycle since 3-6-09 finally peaked at 1113.69 on 11-16-09.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday bounce today/on 11-27-09 peaked very near (1099ish) the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (1100.36, 26.89 point decline at open, 16.62 points = 0.618 x -26.89 points at open, 1083.74 session cycle low + 16.62 = 1100.36) of the early -26.89 point plunge; see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 11-30-09 Pivot Point, Support, Resistance, Gaps/Magnets:
Watch downside gaps/magnets at 1069.30 and, just in case, keep in mind 1046.50.
R4 (Resistance 4 = Pivot Point + 3x session range) 1158.63 midpoint 1147.77
R3 (Pivot Point + 2x session range) 1136.90 midpoint 1126.04
R2 (Pivot Point + session range) 1115.17 midpoint 1109.16
R1 (Resistance 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle low) 1103.14 midpoint 1098.29
Pivot Point 1093.44 (High + Low + Close/3)
midpoint 1087.43
S1 (Support 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle high) 1081.41 midpoint 1076.56
S2 (Pivot Point - session range) 1071.71 midpoint 1060.85
S3 (Pivot Point - 2x session range) 1049.98 midpoint 1039.12
S4 (Pivot Point - 3x session range) 1028.25
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upside gap/magnet at 1110.63 from today 11-27-09's open is a huge likely bearish breakaway gap, see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Market breadth was very negative today, which is a very bearish indication for Monday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) CRASHED after the very early
huge/unusually large bearish rise in fear/VIX, which is a very bearish indication for Monday; see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX's huge/unusually large +20.80% rise today 11-27-09 is a bearish indication for Monday.
Important on Monday will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1069.30, see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1091.38 from 11-23-09's open got filled today, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
The five day SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) reveals a very bearish crash/huge rise in complacency from early 11-19-09 until early 11-25-09, and, it reveals the huge/unusually large bearish rise in fear/VIX that occurred very early today, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
It's not a coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaked at 1112.38 on 11-23-09, shortly after filling the 1109.80 upside gap, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH. It's also not a coincidence that SPX peaked on 11-24-09, right after filling the 1106.24 upside gap/magnet from the open. Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
The market's movements can largely be viewed as gap filling actions, within cycles, that naturally follow Elliott Wave patterns. Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
SPX had bearish (big money wasn't buying weakness on Wednesday) very light volume of 3.041 billion shares on 11-25-09 vs the 60 day EMA at 4.027 billion shares.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Upcycle since 11-2-09 peaked on 11-16-09.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while (a helicopter wasn't good enough for the man).
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has downside gaps at 1069.30, 1046.50, 1025.21, 1016.40, 975.15, 940.38, and 905.84. Gaps tend to provide a trading roadmap. Once SPX clearly puts in a major cycle high (and we get a clear cycle picture after a substantial violent decline) we can follow the trading roadmap.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
I'm looking to enter a short term TLT (Long Bond ETF) trade, see http://bit.ly/1PZROX. It broke out and is now in a large Short Term Wave 3 Upcycle; I'm looking for a good entry point. It's been deceptive, constantly surprising to the upside. I might (probably will trade TLT, might do both, doubtful) also trade SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) ultra short via SDS on Monday, to catch the likely downside gap filling action (1069.30 and possibly another downside gap at Monday's open).
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume shot up by nearly 24% on 11-16-09, to 3.769 billion shares from 3.042 billion shares on Friday 11-13-09, so, there was a dramatic volume spike at the 11-16-09 Short Term and potential Major Cycle High, but, since SPX's volume had become so anemic, that volume spike's level was still well below the EMA (60 day), which is at 4.118 billion shares at 11-19-09's close.
Daily % change in volume is an important indicator at/near cycle highs/lows. A jump of 15% to 25%+ says something. This is really true even for very short term cycles. Price versus volume action is very important.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
From September 2009 to October 2009 SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) gained 21 points, from October 2009 to November 2009 (so far at least) SPX only gained 12 points, so, SPX might have rolled over substantially, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) peaked early in the session today 11-27-09, putting in bearish spikes, and, looks like it'll be weak early tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/3jPcYN, which jives with early SPX/market weakness tomorrow/Monday.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday chart was bearish at session's end, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH, so, early weakness/downside gap filling action (1069.30) is likely tomorrow/Monday (market breadth was very bearish today also).
VIX closed up +20.80% vs SPX down -1.72% today 11-27-09, which is a very bearish indication/unusually large +19.08% rise in fear/spike of the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) for early tomorrow/Monday.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed today, which is a VERY bearish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The market had very negative breadth today 11-27-09 (NYSE up to down volume is/appears to be correct today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a very bearish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks/months) indication for early Monday 11-30.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to early SPX strength tomorrow/Monday, after likely very early weakness (WMT looks like it'll plunge at the open though, based on it's intraday chart discussed earlier), because, it's at very bullish territory (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at modestly bullish today (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bullish +1.12% vs SPX today 11-27-09.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major upcycle since 3-6-09 (is probably the countertrend Wave B and Wave 4 Major Upcycle, of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/18T7lw) is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 11-16-09), see SPX's daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
Fed Credit fell a massive -$33.209 Billion in the five day period ending 11-11-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds, which is a very bearish indication. Fed Credit had a very bearish three week trend prior to this week's massive $75.680 Billion injection in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This liquidity driven market is probably in trouble (some indexes like RUT and DJUSRE appear to have/probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09 respectively, SPX possibly peaked on 11-16-09).
Fed Credit fell a significant -$5.443 Billion in the five day period ending 11-4-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds, which is a bearish indication.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$17.385 Billion in the 5 day period ending 10-28-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
The fact that SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume had VERY light/dried up during the Short Term Upcycle from 11-2-09 to 11-16-09 was obviously a bearish sign (3.769 billion shares on 11-16-09, 3.042 billion shares on 11-13-09, 3.389 billion shares on 11-12-09, 3.450 billion shares on 11-11-09, 3.504 billion shares on 11-10-09, 3.705 billion shares on 11-9-09, 3.487 billion shares on Friday 11-6-09).
Watch SPX's downside gaps at 1069.30/1046.50/1025.21/1016.40 this week and next, see the five day chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a bearish tiny spike on a medium daily white candle (white indicates a close above the open) today/on 11-27-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, which jives with SPX/market weakness on Monday.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) peaked early today 11-27-09, and, looks like it'll plunge at tomorrow's/Monday's open, see http://bit.ly/y3mKo, which points to early SPX/market weakness.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) should fill the downside gap at 905.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) should fill the downside gap at 1452.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
The broad market Russell 2000's (RUT) major upcycle since March appears to have peaked on 9-23-09 (quintuple top, with 9-23-09 being the highest cycle high), see http://bit.ly/3QyXeD.
The DJ Real Estate Index appears to have peaked on 9-17-09, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is dominated by a relatively small number of large cap stocks (see the post from 10-20 at http://bit.ly/MvspO), that have benefited from program trading by the big boys, with a major assist from the Fed's massive credit. So, SPX doesn't really provide a good picture of the broad market.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator; the huge rise in fear that occurred until 11-2-09 and today 11-27-09 is a very bearish sign also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
"On An Inflation-Adjusted Basis SPX Has Been In A Secular Bear Market Since March 2000, " see http://bit.ly/JKhdZ.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 950 to 975, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, not indicators, COT data, etc. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Candlestick charts are instrumental in helping to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc soon.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Major Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +1.12% versus the S & P 500 today/on 11-27, +0.36% on 11-24, -0.62% on 11-23, -0.16% on 11-20, +2.06% on 11-19, +0.96% on 11-18, +0.85% on 11-17, -1.53% on 11-16, -0.65% on 11-13, +1.54% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, +0.61% on 11-10, -0.76% on 11-9, -0.31% on 11-6, -0.13% on 11-5, +0.86% on 11-4, -1.00% on 11-3, +0.56% on 11-2, +1.38% on 10-30, -1.25% on 10-29, +2.01% on 10-28, +0.39% on 10-27, -0.02% on 10-26, +1.14% on 10-23, -1.36% on 10-22, -1.18% on 10-21, +0.25% on 10-20, +0.37% on 10-19, +1.34% on 10-16, +1.09% on 10-15, -2.05% on 10-14, +1.75% on 10-13, -1.16% on 10-12, -0.10% on 10-9, -0.24% on 10-8, -0.25% on 10-7, -0.51% on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was +0.33% versus the XOI today/on 11-27, +0.10% on 11-24, +0.32% on 11-23, +0.35% on 11-20, +1.06% on 11-19, +0.49% on 11-18, +0.81% on 11-17, +1.02% on 11-16, -0.02% on 11-13, +0.51% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, -0.60% on 11-10, -1.04% on 11-9, +0.78% on 11-6, +0.10% on 11-5, -0.92% on 11-4, -1.69% on 11-3, +0.17% on 11-2, +0.27% on 10-30, -2.13% on 10-29, +1.26% on 10-28, +1.54% on 10-27, +1.00% on 10-26, +0.49% on 10-23, +0.55% on 10-22, +0.34% on 10-21, -0.17% on 10-20, -0.40% on 10-19, +0.05% on 10-16, +0.11% on 10-15, +0.36% on 10-14, -0.03% on 10-13, +0.25% on 10-12, +0.26% on 10-9, -1.39% on 10-8, -0.13% on 10-7, -0.69% on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70 (filled), 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.28 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61 (filled), 53.43 (filled), 53.80 (filled), 54.96, and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 54.28 (filled), 52.97 (filled), 51.55 (filled), 51.25, 51.22 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 50.38, 50.19 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.68 (filled), 49.61 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1110.63, 1109.80 (filled), 1096.56 (filled), 1094.90 (filled), 1076.19 (filled), 1068.30 (filled), 1066.11 (filled), 1063.41 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1093.48 (filled), 1093.01 (filled), 1091.38 (filled), 1073.19 (filled), 1071.49 (filled), 1069.30, 1064.66 (filled), 1057.58 (filled), 1046.50, 1044.38 (filled), 1042.63 (filled), 1040.46 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in rollover mode, versus the 10-15-09/10-16-09, 6-1-09, and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +1.00% versus the XAU today/on 11-27, +0.66% on 11-24, +0.60% on 11-23, +0.08% on 11-20, -0.71% on 11-19, +1.22% on 11-18, +0.21% on 11-17, -0.17% on 11-16, +0.67% on 11-13, -0.45% on 11-12, +0.98% on 11-11, -0.38% on 11-10, -0.93% on 11-9, +1.96% on 11-6, -0.86 on 11-5, +1.12% on 11-4, +0.30% on 11-3, -0.78% on 11-2, +4.40% on 10-30, -0.99% on 10-29, +0.98% on 10-28, +1.21% on 10-27, +0.35% on 10-26, -0.17% on 10-23, +0.02% on 10-22, -0.97% on 10-21, +0.06% on 10-20, -0.17% on 10-19, -0.33% on 10-16, +0.16% on 10-15, -0.67% on 10-14, +0.76% on 10-13, +0.14% on 10-12, -0.61% on 10-9, -0.46% on 10-8, -0.70% on 10-7, +0.85% on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at very bullish (+1.00% to +1.99% vs XAU) today 11-27-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at modestly bullish today (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX) today 11-27-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 51.45 (filled), 50.82 (filled), 49.78 (filled), 47.62, 46.85 (filled), 46.72, 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56 (filled), 43.04 (filled), 42.76 (filled), 42.48 (filled), 41.87 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
NEM has downside gaps at 53.35 (filled), 52.26 (filled), 50.99, 50.46 (filled), 49.64, 49.04, 47.25, 46.73 (filled), 46.48 (on 11-4-09, same as previous), 46.48 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20 (filled), 42.12 (filled), 41.50, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.83, 51.10 (filled), 49.13 (filled), 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 44.47 (filled), 43.80 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 54.90, 52.66 (filled), 51.24 (filled), 47.44 (filled), 47.35 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 43 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday bounce today/on 11-27-09 peaked very near (1099ish) the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (1100.36, 26.89 point decline at open, 16.62 points = 0.618 x -26.89 points at open, 1083.74 session cycle low + 16.62 = 1100.36) of the early -26.89 point plunge; see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 11-30-09 Pivot Point, Support, Resistance, Gaps/Magnets:
Watch downside gaps/magnets at 1069.30 and, just in case, keep in mind 1046.50.
R4 (Resistance 4 = Pivot Point + 3x session range) 1158.63 midpoint 1147.77
R3 (Pivot Point + 2x session range) 1136.90 midpoint 1126.04
R2 (Pivot Point + session range) 1115.17 midpoint 1109.16
R1 (Resistance 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle low) 1103.14 midpoint 1098.29
Pivot Point 1093.44 (High + Low + Close/3)
midpoint 1087.43
S1 (Support 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle high) 1081.41 midpoint 1076.56
S2 (Pivot Point - session range) 1071.71 midpoint 1060.85
S3 (Pivot Point - 2x session range) 1049.98 midpoint 1039.12
S4 (Pivot Point - 3x session range) 1028.25
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upside gap/magnet at 1110.63 from today 11-27-09's open is a huge likely bearish breakaway gap, see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Market breadth was very negative today, which is a very bearish indication for Monday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) CRASHED after the very early
huge/unusually large bearish rise in fear/VIX, which is a very bearish indication for Monday; see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX's huge/unusually large +20.80% rise today 11-27-09 is a bearish indication for Monday.
Important on Monday will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1069.30, see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1091.38 from 11-23-09's open got filled today, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
The five day SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) reveals a very bearish crash/huge rise in complacency from early 11-19-09 until early 11-25-09, and, it reveals the huge/unusually large bearish rise in fear/VIX that occurred very early today, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
Normally (I'm leaving this in for reference purposes) an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
It's not a coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaked at 1112.38 on 11-23-09, shortly after filling the 1109.80 upside gap, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH. It's also not a coincidence that SPX peaked on 11-24-09, right after filling the 1106.24 upside gap/magnet from the open. Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
The market's movements can largely be viewed as gap filling actions, within cycles, that naturally follow Elliott Wave patterns. Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
SPX had bearish (big money wasn't buying weakness on Wednesday) very light volume of 3.041 billion shares on 11-25-09 vs the 60 day EMA at 4.027 billion shares.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Upcycle since 11-2-09 peaked on 11-16-09.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while (a helicopter wasn't good enough for the man).
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has downside gaps at 1069.30, 1046.50, 1025.21, 1016.40, 975.15, 940.38, and 905.84. Gaps tend to provide a trading roadmap. Once SPX clearly puts in a major cycle high (and we get a clear cycle picture after a substantial violent decline) we can follow the trading roadmap.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
I'm looking to enter a short term TLT (Long Bond ETF) trade, see http://bit.ly/1PZROX. It broke out and is now in a large Short Term Wave 3 Upcycle; I'm looking for a good entry point. It's been deceptive, constantly surprising to the upside. I might (probably will trade TLT, might do both, doubtful) also trade SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) ultra short via SDS on Monday, to catch the likely downside gap filling action (1069.30 and possibly another downside gap at Monday's open).
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume shot up by nearly 24% on 11-16-09, to 3.769 billion shares from 3.042 billion shares on Friday 11-13-09, so, there was a dramatic volume spike at the 11-16-09 Short Term and potential Major Cycle High, but, since SPX's volume had become so anemic, that volume spike's level was still well below the EMA (60 day), which is at 4.118 billion shares at 11-19-09's close.
Daily % change in volume is an important indicator at/near cycle highs/lows. A jump of 15% to 25%+ says something. This is really true even for very short term cycles. Price versus volume action is very important.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
From September 2009 to October 2009 SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) gained 21 points, from October 2009 to November 2009 (so far at least) SPX only gained 12 points, so, SPX might have rolled over substantially, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) peaked early in the session today 11-27-09, putting in bearish spikes, and, looks like it'll be weak early tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/3jPcYN, which jives with early SPX/market weakness tomorrow/Monday.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday chart was bearish at session's end, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH, so, early weakness/downside gap filling action (1069.30) is likely tomorrow/Monday (market breadth was very bearish today also).
VIX closed up +20.80% vs SPX down -1.72% today 11-27-09, which is a very bearish indication/unusually large +19.08% rise in fear/spike of the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) for early tomorrow/Monday.
The intraday SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed today, which is a VERY bearish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The market had very negative breadth today 11-27-09 (NYSE up to down volume is/appears to be correct today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/advances, which is a very bearish (breadth has generally been deteriorating in recent weeks/months) indication for early Monday 11-30.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to early SPX strength tomorrow/Monday, after likely very early weakness (WMT looks like it'll plunge at the open though, based on it's intraday chart discussed earlier), because, it's at very bullish territory (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at modestly bullish today (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bullish +1.12% vs SPX today 11-27-09.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major upcycle since 3-6-09 (is probably the countertrend Wave B and Wave 4 Major Upcycle, of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/18T7lw) is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 11-16-09), see SPX's daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
Fed Credit fell a massive -$33.209 Billion in the five day period ending 11-11-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds, which is a very bearish indication. Fed Credit had a very bearish three week trend prior to this week's massive $75.680 Billion injection in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This liquidity driven market is probably in trouble (some indexes like RUT and DJUSRE appear to have/probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09 respectively, SPX possibly peaked on 11-16-09).
Fed Credit fell a significant -$5.443 Billion in the five day period ending 11-4-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds, which is a bearish indication.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$17.385 Billion in the 5 day period ending 10-28-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
The fact that SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume had VERY light/dried up during the Short Term Upcycle from 11-2-09 to 11-16-09 was obviously a bearish sign (3.769 billion shares on 11-16-09, 3.042 billion shares on 11-13-09, 3.389 billion shares on 11-12-09, 3.450 billion shares on 11-11-09, 3.504 billion shares on 11-10-09, 3.705 billion shares on 11-9-09, 3.487 billion shares on Friday 11-6-09).
Watch SPX's downside gaps at 1069.30/1046.50/1025.21/1016.40 this week and next, see the five day chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a bearish tiny spike on a medium daily white candle (white indicates a close above the open) today/on 11-27-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, which jives with SPX/market weakness on Monday.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) peaked early today 11-27-09, and, looks like it'll plunge at tomorrow's/Monday's open, see http://bit.ly/y3mKo, which points to early SPX/market weakness.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) should fill the downside gap at 905.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) should fill the downside gap at 1452.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
The broad market Russell 2000's (RUT) major upcycle since March appears to have peaked on 9-23-09 (quintuple top, with 9-23-09 being the highest cycle high), see http://bit.ly/3QyXeD.
The DJ Real Estate Index appears to have peaked on 9-17-09, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is dominated by a relatively small number of large cap stocks (see the post from 10-20 at http://bit.ly/MvspO), that have benefited from program trading by the big boys, with a major assist from the Fed's massive credit. So, SPX doesn't really provide a good picture of the broad market.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is off the charts bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator; the huge rise in fear that occurred until 11-2-09 and today 11-27-09 is a very bearish sign also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
"On An Inflation-Adjusted Basis SPX Has Been In A Secular Bear Market Since March 2000, " see http://bit.ly/JKhdZ.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 950 to 975, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, not indicators, COT data, etc. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Candlestick charts are instrumental in helping to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc soon.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Major Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +1.12% versus the S & P 500 today/on 11-27, +0.36% on 11-24, -0.62% on 11-23, -0.16% on 11-20, +2.06% on 11-19, +0.96% on 11-18, +0.85% on 11-17, -1.53% on 11-16, -0.65% on 11-13, +1.54% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, +0.61% on 11-10, -0.76% on 11-9, -0.31% on 11-6, -0.13% on 11-5, +0.86% on 11-4, -1.00% on 11-3, +0.56% on 11-2, +1.38% on 10-30, -1.25% on 10-29, +2.01% on 10-28, +0.39% on 10-27, -0.02% on 10-26, +1.14% on 10-23, -1.36% on 10-22, -1.18% on 10-21, +0.25% on 10-20, +0.37% on 10-19, +1.34% on 10-16, +1.09% on 10-15, -2.05% on 10-14, +1.75% on 10-13, -1.16% on 10-12, -0.10% on 10-9, -0.24% on 10-8, -0.25% on 10-7, -0.51% on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was +0.33% versus the XOI today/on 11-27, +0.10% on 11-24, +0.32% on 11-23, +0.35% on 11-20, +1.06% on 11-19, +0.49% on 11-18, +0.81% on 11-17, +1.02% on 11-16, -0.02% on 11-13, +0.51% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, -0.60% on 11-10, -1.04% on 11-9, +0.78% on 11-6, +0.10% on 11-5, -0.92% on 11-4, -1.69% on 11-3, +0.17% on 11-2, +0.27% on 10-30, -2.13% on 10-29, +1.26% on 10-28, +1.54% on 10-27, +1.00% on 10-26, +0.49% on 10-23, +0.55% on 10-22, +0.34% on 10-21, -0.17% on 10-20, -0.40% on 10-19, +0.05% on 10-16, +0.11% on 10-15, +0.36% on 10-14, -0.03% on 10-13, +0.25% on 10-12, +0.26% on 10-9, -1.39% on 10-8, -0.13% on 10-7, -0.69% on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70 (filled), 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.28 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61 (filled), 53.43 (filled), 53.80 (filled), 54.96, and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 54.28 (filled), 52.97 (filled), 51.55 (filled), 51.25, 51.22 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 50.38, 50.19 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.68 (filled), 49.61 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1110.63, 1109.80 (filled), 1096.56 (filled), 1094.90 (filled), 1076.19 (filled), 1068.30 (filled), 1066.11 (filled), 1063.41 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1093.48 (filled), 1093.01 (filled), 1091.38 (filled), 1073.19 (filled), 1071.49 (filled), 1069.30, 1064.66 (filled), 1057.58 (filled), 1046.50, 1044.38 (filled), 1042.63 (filled), 1040.46 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in rollover mode, versus the 10-15-09/10-16-09, 6-1-09, and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +1.00% versus the XAU today/on 11-27, +0.66% on 11-24, +0.60% on 11-23, +0.08% on 11-20, -0.71% on 11-19, +1.22% on 11-18, +0.21% on 11-17, -0.17% on 11-16, +0.67% on 11-13, -0.45% on 11-12, +0.98% on 11-11, -0.38% on 11-10, -0.93% on 11-9, +1.96% on 11-6, -0.86 on 11-5, +1.12% on 11-4, +0.30% on 11-3, -0.78% on 11-2, +4.40% on 10-30, -0.99% on 10-29, +0.98% on 10-28, +1.21% on 10-27, +0.35% on 10-26, -0.17% on 10-23, +0.02% on 10-22, -0.97% on 10-21, +0.06% on 10-20, -0.17% on 10-19, -0.33% on 10-16, +0.16% on 10-15, -0.67% on 10-14, +0.76% on 10-13, +0.14% on 10-12, -0.61% on 10-9, -0.46% on 10-8, -0.70% on 10-7, +0.85% on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at very bullish (+1.00% to +1.99% vs XAU) today 11-27-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at modestly bullish today (+0.25% to +0.49% vs SPX) today 11-27-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 51.45 (filled), 50.82 (filled), 49.78 (filled), 47.62, 46.85 (filled), 46.72, 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56 (filled), 43.04 (filled), 42.76 (filled), 42.48 (filled), 41.87 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
NEM has downside gaps at 53.35 (filled), 52.26 (filled), 50.99, 50.46 (filled), 49.64, 49.04, 47.25, 46.73 (filled), 46.48 (on 11-4-09, same as previous), 46.48 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20 (filled), 42.12 (filled), 41.50, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.83, 51.10 (filled), 49.13 (filled), 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 44.47 (filled), 43.80 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 54.90, 52.66 (filled), 51.24 (filled), 47.44 (filled), 47.35 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 43 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:59 AM
5 Comments:
The "market"/Russell 2000 (RUT) peaked on 9-23-09, see http://bit.ly/1rxqw6.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:55 PM
Commodities will, in almost every case, massively deflate, the process began in mid 2008, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/1e3XOZ
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:56 PM
"Unorthodox monetary policies have mixed effects on the money supply;" see http://bit.ly/pIbxm.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:56 PM
NDX Bear EW Wkly Chart 2: Wave 1 1668.57, Wave 2 2055.82, Large inverse EW 12345 Wave 3 1018.86, Wave 4 up 1814.25 http://bit.ly/Vl1aE
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 2:56 PM
Think it's coincidence SPX put in session cycle low very soon after filling 1091.38 downside gap/magnet? No. See http://bit.ly/12SpXH
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:30 PM
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