An SPX Major Cycle High Might Have Occurred On Friday 12-4-09
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is near bullish territory, since WMT's leading to the upside by nearly +0.50%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at/near bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bullish +1.52% vs SPX today 12-7-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX strength tomorrow/Tuesday (WMT looks like it will decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), after likely very early weakness/downside gap filling action (watch 1095.63 downside gap), because, it's in very bullish territory (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) declined significantly late today 12-7-09 , which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from Monday 11-30-09 to very early Friday 12-4-09, which is/was an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was up +4.00% vs SPX down -0.25% today, which is a very bullish indication for early Tuesday 12-8-09, because, it's a +3.75% rise in fear/+3.75% rise in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, strength is likely early on Tuesday, after likely very early downside gap (1095.63) filling action.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX appears to have peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Important tomorrow/Tuesday probably will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1095.63 from Tuesday 12-1-09's open (session cycle low at 1095ish/DS2 is likely tomorrow/Tuesday), see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When the 1095.63 downside gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen four times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 12-8-09 Daily Pivot Point, Support, Resistance, Gaps/Magnets:
Watch downside gaps/magnets at 1095.63 (probably key early tomorrow; a session cycle low at 1095ish/DS2 is likely early tomorrow)), 1069.30 (key later, probably on Wednesday), and, just in case, keep in mind 1046.50.
DR4 (Daily Resistance 4 = Pivot Point + 3x session range) 1134.63 midpoint 1129.68
DR3 (Pivot Point + 2x session range) 1124.73 midpoint 1119.78
DR2 (Pivot Point + session range) 1114.83 midpoint 1111.94
DR1 (Daily Resistance 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle low) 1109.04 midpoint 1106.99
Pivot Point 1104.93 (High + Low + Close/3)
midpoint 1102.04
DS1 (Daily Support 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle high) 1099.14 midpoint 1097.09
DS2 (Pivot Point - session range) 1095.03 midpoint 1090.08
DS3 (Pivot Point - 2x session range) 1085.13 midpoint 1080.18
DS4 (Pivot Point - 3x session range) 1075.23
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is super bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator; the huge rise in complacency recently is a very bearish sign), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/market's buying power/volume has dried up since early November, see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
This market is a non fundamentally driven liquidity bubble. It's a major accident waiting to happen.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1091.38 from 11-23-09's open got filled on Friday 11-27-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. It's not a coincidence that SPX bottomed intraday at 1083.74 on Friday 11-27-09, very soon after filling the downside gap/magnet at 1091.38 from 11-23-09's open.
It's not a coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaked at 1112.38 on 11-23-09, shortly after filling the 1109.80 upside gap, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH. It's also not a coincidence that SPX peaked on 11-24-09, right after filling the 1106.24 upside gap/magnet from the open. Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
The market's movements can largely be viewed as gap filling actions, within cycles, that naturally follow Elliott Wave patterns. Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has downside gaps at 1095.63, 1069.30, 1046.50, 1025.21, 1016.40, 975.15, 940.38, and 905.84. Gaps tend to provide a trading roadmap. Once SPX clearly puts in a major cycle high (and we get a clear cycle picture after a substantial violent decline) we can follow the trading roadmap.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Daily % change in volume is an important indicator at/near cycle highs/lows. A jump of 15% to 25%+ says something. This is really true even for very short term cycles. Price versus volume action is very important.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) peaked very late in the session today 12-7-09, and, looks like it will be weak very early tomorrow (bearish daily candle also/spike move today), since a bearish dark candle with a spike occurred shortly before session's end, see http://bit.ly/3jPcYN, which jives with very early SPX/market weakness tomorrow/Tuesday, followed by likely strength.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday chart was bearish at session's end, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH, so, early weakness/downside gap filling action (1095.63) is likely tomorrow/Tuesday (market breadth was mixed/bearish today also).
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major upcycle since 3-6-09 (is probably the countertrend Wave B and Wave 4 Major Upcycle, of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/18T7lw) is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 12-4-09), see SPX's daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
Watch SPX's downside gaps at 1095.63/1069.30/1046.50/1025.21/1016.40 this week and next, see the five day chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a bearish tiny spike on a tall daily white candle (white indicates a close above the open) today/on 12-7-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, which jives with SPX/market weakness very early on Tuesday.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) peaked very early today 12-7-09, and, looks like it'll decline at tomorrow's/Tuesday's open (late bearish dark candle with a spike), see http://bit.ly/y3mKo, which points to very early SPX/market weakness, followed by likely strength.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) should fill the downside gap at 905.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) should fill the downside gap at 1452.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
The broad market Russell 2000's (RUT) major upcycle since March appears to have peaked on 9-23-09 (quintuple top, with 9-23-09 being the highest cycle high), see http://bit.ly/3QyXeD.
The DJ Real Estate Index appears to have peaked on 9-17-09, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is dominated by a relatively small number of large cap stocks (see the post from 10-20 at http://bit.ly/MvspO), that have benefited from program trading by the big boys, with a major assist from the Fed's massive credit. So, SPX doesn't really provide a good picture of the broad market.
"On An Inflation-Adjusted Basis SPX Has Been In A Secular Bear Market Since March 2000, " see http://bit.ly/JKhdZ.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 950 to 975, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, not indicators, COT data, etc. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Candlestick charts are instrumental in helping to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc soon.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Major Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +1.52% versus the S & P 500 today/on 12-7, -0.92% on 12-4, +0.60% on 12-3, -0.36% on 12-2, -0.84% on 12-1, -0.53% on 11-30, +1.12% on 11-27, +0.36% on 11-24, -0.62% on 11-23, -0.16% on 11-20, +2.06% on 11-19, +0.96% on 11-18, +0.85% on 11-17, -1.53% on 11-16, -0.65% on 11-13, +1.54% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, +0.61% on 11-10, -0.76% on 11-9, -0.31% on 11-6, -0.13% on 11-5, +0.86% on 11-4, -1.00% on 11-3, +0.56% on 11-2, +1.38% on 10-30, -1.25% on 10-29, +2.01% on 10-28, +0.39% on 10-27, -0.02% on 10-26, +1.14% on 10-23, -1.36% on 10-22, -1.18% on 10-21, +0.25% on 10-20, +0.37% on 10-19, +1.34% on 10-16, +1.09% on 10-15, -2.05% on 10-14, +1.75% on 10-13, -1.16% on 10-12, -0.10% on 10-9, -0.24% on 10-8, -0.25% on 10-7, -0.51% on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was -0.24% versus the XOI today/on 12-7, -0.45% on 12-4, -0.18% on 12-3, +0.18% on 12-2, -0.65% on 12-1, +0.89% on 11-30, +0.33% on 11-27, +0.10% on 11-24, +0.32% on 11-23, +0.35% on 11-20, +1.06% on 11-19, +0.49% on 11-18, +0.81% on 11-17, +1.02% on 11-16, -0.02% on 11-13, +0.51% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, -0.60% on 11-10, -1.04% on 11-9, +0.78% on 11-6, +0.10% on 11-5, -0.92% on 11-4, -1.69% on 11-3, +0.17% on 11-2, +0.27% on 10-30, -2.13% on 10-29, +1.26% on 10-28, +1.54% on 10-27, +1.00% on 10-26, +0.49% on 10-23, +0.55% on 10-22, +0.34% on 10-21, -0.17% on 10-20, -0.40% on 10-19, +0.05% on 10-16, +0.11% on 10-15, +0.36% on 10-14, -0.03% on 10-13, +0.25% on 10-12, +0.26% on 10-9, -1.39% on 10-8, -0.13% on 10-7, -0.69% on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70 (filled), 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.28 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61 (filled), 53.43 (filled), 53.80 (filled), 54.96 (filled), and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 54.55 (filled), 54.28 (filled), 52.97 (filled), 51.55 (filled), 51.25, 51.22 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 50.38, 50.19 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.68 (filled), 49.61 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1110.63 (filled), 1109.80 (filled), 1096.56 (filled), 1094.90 (filled), 1076.19 (filled), 1068.30 (filled), 1066.11 (filled), 1063.41 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1095.63, 1093.48 (filled), 1093.01 (filled), 1091.38 (filled), 1073.19 (filled), 1071.49 (filled), 1069.30, 1064.66 (filled), 1057.58 (filled), 1046.50, 1044.38 (filled), 1042.63 (filled), 1040.46 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in rollover mode, versus the 10-15-09/10-16-09, 6-1-09, and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +1.22% versus the XAU today/on 12-7, +0.84% on 12-4, +0.04% on 12-3, -1.91% on 12-2, -1.14% on 12-1, +0.44% on 11-30, +1.00% on 11-27, +0.66% on 11-24, +0.60% on 11-23, +0.08% on 11-20, -0.71% on 11-19, +1.22% on 11-18, +0.21% on 11-17, -0.17% on 11-16, +0.67% on 11-13, -0.45% on 11-12, +0.98% on 11-11, -0.38% on 11-10, -0.93% on 11-9, +1.96% on 11-6, -0.86 on 11-5, +1.12% on 11-4, +0.30% on 11-3, -0.78% on 11-2, +4.40% on 10-30, -0.99% on 10-29, +0.98% on 10-28, +1.21% on 10-27, +0.35% on 10-26, -0.17% on 10-23, +0.02% on 10-22, -0.97% on 10-21, +0.06% on 10-20, -0.17% on 10-19, -0.33% on 10-16, +0.16% on 10-15, -0.67% on 10-14, +0.76% on 10-13, +0.14% on 10-12, -0.61% on 10-9, -0.46% on 10-8, -0.70% on 10-7, +0.85% on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at bearish (-0.50% to -0.99% vs XAU) today 12-7-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at/near bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX) today 12-7-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 53.68 (filled), 51.45 (filled), 51.1069 (filled), 50.82 (filled), 49.78 (filled), 47.62, 46.85 (filled), 46.72, 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56 (filled), 43.04 (filled), 42.76 (filled), 42.48 (filled), 41.87 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
NEM has downside gaps at 55.66 (filled), 53.64, 53.35 (filled), 52.26 (filled), 50.99, 50.46 (filled), 49.64, 49.04, 47.25, 46.73 (filled), 46.48 (on 11-4-09, same as previous), 46.48 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20 (filled), 42.12 (filled), 41.50, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 54.78, 53.53, 52.83 (filled), 51.10 (filled), 49.13 (filled), 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 44.47 (filled), 43.80 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 55.83, 54.90 (filled), 54.58, 52.66 (filled), 51.24 (filled), 47.44 (filled), 47.35 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 45 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
The five day SPX vs broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is near bullish territory, since WMT's leading to the upside by nearly +0.50%.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (includes HUI for gold bugs) closed at/near bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/5zScR (cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, indicators must be evaluated AFTER understanding the cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps), and, the daily absolute Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bullish +1.52% vs SPX today 12-7-09.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator points to SPX strength tomorrow/Tuesday (WMT looks like it will decline very early on, based on it's intraday chart), after likely very early weakness/downside gap filling action (watch 1095.63 downside gap), because, it's in very bullish territory (+1.00% to +1.99% vs SPX), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5 (cycles are primary, an indication is secondary).
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) declined significantly late today 12-7-09 , which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from Monday 11-30-09 to very early Friday 12-4-09, which is/was an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
VIX was up +4.00% vs SPX down -0.25% today, which is a very bullish indication for early Tuesday 12-8-09, because, it's a +3.75% rise in fear/+3.75% rise in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, strength is likely early on Tuesday, after likely very early downside gap (1095.63) filling action.
Normally an unusually large rise complacency points to significant strength (is the non contrarian case, since complacency usually points to weakness, is normally contrarian), while an unusually large rise in fear points to weakness (fear normally points to strength).
Market breadth was/closed at mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX appears to have peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Important tomorrow/Tuesday probably will be to watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1095.63 from Tuesday 12-1-09's open (session cycle low at 1095ish/DS2 is likely tomorrow/Tuesday), see 5 day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When the 1095.63 downside gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen four times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 12-8-09 Daily Pivot Point, Support, Resistance, Gaps/Magnets:
Watch downside gaps/magnets at 1095.63 (probably key early tomorrow; a session cycle low at 1095ish/DS2 is likely early tomorrow)), 1069.30 (key later, probably on Wednesday), and, just in case, keep in mind 1046.50.
DR4 (Daily Resistance 4 = Pivot Point + 3x session range) 1134.63 midpoint 1129.68
DR3 (Pivot Point + 2x session range) 1124.73 midpoint 1119.78
DR2 (Pivot Point + session range) 1114.83 midpoint 1111.94
DR1 (Daily Resistance 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle low) 1109.04 midpoint 1106.99
Pivot Point 1104.93 (High + Low + Close/3)
midpoint 1102.04
DS1 (Daily Support 1 = 2x Pivot Point - session cycle high) 1099.14 midpoint 1097.09
DS2 (Pivot Point - session range) 1095.03 midpoint 1090.08
DS3 (Pivot Point - 2x session range) 1085.13 midpoint 1080.18
DS4 (Pivot Point - 3x session range) 1075.23
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM. SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is super bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator; the huge rise in complacency recently is a very bearish sign), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/market's buying power/volume has dried up since early November, see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
This market is a non fundamentally driven liquidity bubble. It's a major accident waiting to happen.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1091.38 from 11-23-09's open got filled on Friday 11-27-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. It's not a coincidence that SPX bottomed intraday at 1083.74 on Friday 11-27-09, very soon after filling the downside gap/magnet at 1091.38 from 11-23-09's open.
It's not a coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) peaked at 1112.38 on 11-23-09, shortly after filling the 1109.80 upside gap, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH. It's also not a coincidence that SPX peaked on 11-24-09, right after filling the 1106.24 upside gap/magnet from the open. Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
The market's movements can largely be viewed as gap filling actions, within cycles, that naturally follow Elliott Wave patterns. Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has downside gaps at 1095.63, 1069.30, 1046.50, 1025.21, 1016.40, 975.15, 940.38, and 905.84. Gaps tend to provide a trading roadmap. Once SPX clearly puts in a major cycle high (and we get a clear cycle picture after a substantial violent decline) we can follow the trading roadmap.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Daily % change in volume is an important indicator at/near cycle highs/lows. A jump of 15% to 25%+ says something. This is really true even for very short term cycles. Price versus volume action is very important.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) peaked very late in the session today 12-7-09, and, looks like it will be weak very early tomorrow (bearish daily candle also/spike move today), since a bearish dark candle with a spike occurred shortly before session's end, see http://bit.ly/3jPcYN, which jives with very early SPX/market weakness tomorrow/Tuesday, followed by likely strength.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday chart was bearish at session's end, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH, so, early weakness/downside gap filling action (1095.63) is likely tomorrow/Tuesday (market breadth was mixed/bearish today also).
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major upcycle since 3-6-09 (is probably the countertrend Wave B and Wave 4 Major Upcycle, of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart 2 at http://bit.ly/18T7lw) is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 12-4-09), see SPX's daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
Watch SPX's downside gaps at 1095.63/1069.30/1046.50/1025.21/1016.40 this week and next, see the five day chart at http://bit.ly/nzwcN.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a bearish tiny spike on a tall daily white candle (white indicates a close above the open) today/on 12-7-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, which jives with SPX/market weakness very early on Tuesday.
Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) peaked very early today 12-7-09, and, looks like it'll decline at tomorrow's/Tuesday's open (late bearish dark candle with a spike), see http://bit.ly/y3mKo, which points to very early SPX/market weakness, followed by likely strength.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) should fill the downside gap at 905.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) should fill the downside gap at 1452.84 from July 15, 2009 in the next few weeks/months, seen in daily chart at http://bit.ly/11JgKT.
The broad market Russell 2000's (RUT) major upcycle since March appears to have peaked on 9-23-09 (quintuple top, with 9-23-09 being the highest cycle high), see http://bit.ly/3QyXeD.
The DJ Real Estate Index appears to have peaked on 9-17-09, putting in a bearish spike on a dark candle, see http://bit.ly/16rqxJ.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is dominated by a relatively small number of large cap stocks (see the post from 10-20 at http://bit.ly/MvspO), that have benefited from program trading by the big boys, with a major assist from the Fed's massive credit. So, SPX doesn't really provide a good picture of the broad market.
"On An Inflation-Adjusted Basis SPX Has Been In A Secular Bear Market Since March 2000, " see http://bit.ly/JKhdZ.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
INTERESTING, "The “Real” Mega Bears" see http://bit.ly/AL8LQ. It supports the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) bounce since March 6, 2009 being a countertrend Wave B type of upcycle.
A 5% major sell signal (5%+ decline after breaking uptrend line since 3-6-09, which looks like about 950 to 975, see second weekly view chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and visualize uptrend) has to occur before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Remember that cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and gaps are the primary market timing considerations, not indicators, COT data, etc. They are the basis/crux of the Trade the Cycles market timing system. Candlestick charts are instrumental in helping to determine or finetune what the cycles and Elliott Wave count are.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short via QID, SDS, ERY, TZA, SRS, FAZ etc soon.
The days of inflation from massive easy credit/money and "real estate lottery" capital gains are long gone. Welcome to DEFLATION (Deflation anyone? See http://www.shadowstats.com/). Bonds are doing well because we're in a highly deflationary environment. Stocks and commodities should generally do poorly. These are some of my musings from Twitter.
See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter, see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (data since 3-6-09, when a likely countertrend Wave B Major Intermediate Term Upcycle began) is super bearish since 3-6-09, at +1.52% versus the S & P 500 today/on 12-7, -0.92% on 12-4, +0.60% on 12-3, -0.36% on 12-2, -0.84% on 12-1, -0.53% on 11-30, +1.12% on 11-27, +0.36% on 11-24, -0.62% on 11-23, -0.16% on 11-20, +2.06% on 11-19, +0.96% on 11-18, +0.85% on 11-17, -1.53% on 11-16, -0.65% on 11-13, +1.54% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, +0.61% on 11-10, -0.76% on 11-9, -0.31% on 11-6, -0.13% on 11-5, +0.86% on 11-4, -1.00% on 11-3, +0.56% on 11-2, +1.38% on 10-30, -1.25% on 10-29, +2.01% on 10-28, +0.39% on 10-27, -0.02% on 10-26, +1.14% on 10-23, -1.36% on 10-22, -1.18% on 10-21, +0.25% on 10-20, +0.37% on 10-19, +1.34% on 10-16, +1.09% on 10-15, -2.05% on 10-14, +1.75% on 10-13, -1.16% on 10-12, -0.10% on 10-9, -0.24% on 10-8, -0.25% on 10-7, -0.51% on 10-6, -1.53% on 10-5, +0.61% on 10-2, +2.40% on 10-1, +0.05% on 9-30, -0.33% on 9-29, -1.72% on 9-28, -1.82% on 9-25, +1.55% on 9-24, -0.15% on 9-23, -0.50% on 9-22, +1.94% on 9-21, +0.04% on 9-18, +0.15% on 9-17, -1.31% on 9-16, -1.20% on 9-15, -1.29% on 9-14, -0.47% on 9-11, -1.20% on 9-10, -1.34% on 9-9, -1.42% on 9-8, -1.43% on 9-4, +0.76% on 9-3, +0.23% on 9-2, +2.41% on 9-1, +0.30% on 8-31, -0.01% on 8-28, -1.36% on 8-27, +0.24% on 8-26, -0.01% on 8-25, +0.42% on 8-24, -2.54% on 8-21, -1.01% on 8-20, -0.09% on 8-19, -1.42% on 8-18, +2.01% on 8-17, +0.68% on 8-14, +2.02% on 8-13, -0.21% on 8-12, +1.91% on 8-11, +1.20% on 8-10, -0.71% on 8-7, +0.11% on 8-6, -1.01% on 8-5, -0.28% on 8-4, -1.61% on 8-3, -0.27% on 7-31, +0.05% on 7-30, +1.38% on 7-29, +0.16% on 7-28, -0.24% on 7-27, +0.07% on 7-24, -3.16% on 7-23, +0.68% on 7-22, -0.28% on 7-21, -0.46% on 7-20, +0.00% on 7-17, -0.94% on 7-16, -2.09% on 7-15, +0.10% on 7-14, -1.94% on 7-13, -0.66% on 7-10, -0.95% on 7-9, +1.28% on 7-8, +2.20% on 7-7, -0.39% on 7-6, +1.76% on 7-2, -0.58% on 7-1, +0.19% on 6-30, -0.64% on 6-29, -0.91% on 6-26, -0.82% on 6-25, -0.32% on 6-24, -0.72% on 6-23, +3.93% on 6-22, -1.36% on 6-19, -0.59% on 6-18, +0.78% on 6-17, +0.84% on 6-16, -0.39% on 6-15, +0.91% on 6-12, -2.09% on 6-11, -0.74% on 6-10, -0.74% on 6-9, -0.41% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -1.17% on 6-4, +3.27% on 6-3, -1.50% on 6-2, -0.87% on 6-1, -0.98% on 5-29, -1.07% on 5-28, +0.54% on 5-27, -1.11% on 5-26, +0.44% on 5-22, +2.03% on 5-21, -0.34% on 5-20, -0.95% on 5-19, +0.64% on 5-18, -0.79% on 5-15, -2.90% on 5-14, +0.98% on 5-13, +0.63% on 5-12, +3.13% on 5-11, -1.91% on 5-8, +2.09% on 5-7, -3.62% on 5-6, -0.37% on 5-5, -1.81% on 5-4, -1.23% on 5-1, +0.00% on 4-30, +1.92% on 4-29, +0.19% on 4-28, +2.35% on 4-27, -3.71% on 4-24, -1.19% on 4-23, -0.98% on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The likely countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. It's the first meaningful S & P 500 (SPX) rally of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, see chart two/Weekly View http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, which is a sign that it's Wave B/Wave 4 up of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. The unusual amount of very large spiking action since 3-6-09, even very early on, also jives well with countertrend and important peaking action.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, purchased on 4-22 at 88.50 (1:10 stock split on 7-9).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was -0.24% versus the XOI today/on 12-7, -0.45% on 12-4, -0.18% on 12-3, +0.18% on 12-2, -0.65% on 12-1, +0.89% on 11-30, +0.33% on 11-27, +0.10% on 11-24, +0.32% on 11-23, +0.35% on 11-20, +1.06% on 11-19, +0.49% on 11-18, +0.81% on 11-17, +1.02% on 11-16, -0.02% on 11-13, +0.51% on 11-12, +0.76% on 11-11, -0.60% on 11-10, -1.04% on 11-9, +0.78% on 11-6, +0.10% on 11-5, -0.92% on 11-4, -1.69% on 11-3, +0.17% on 11-2, +0.27% on 10-30, -2.13% on 10-29, +1.26% on 10-28, +1.54% on 10-27, +1.00% on 10-26, +0.49% on 10-23, +0.55% on 10-22, +0.34% on 10-21, -0.17% on 10-20, -0.40% on 10-19, +0.05% on 10-16, +0.11% on 10-15, +0.36% on 10-14, -0.03% on 10-13, +0.25% on 10-12, +0.26% on 10-9, -1.39% on 10-8, -0.13% on 10-7, -0.69% on 10-6, -0.45% on 10-5, -0.28% on 10-2, +0.69% on 10-1, -0.28% on 9-30, +0.16% on 9-29, -0.59% on 9-28, -0.62% on 9-25, +1.71% on 9-24, +0.84% on 9-23, -1.13% on 9-22, +0.16% on 9-21, +0.61% on 9-18, -0.68% on 9-17, -0.95% on 9-16, -1.37% on 9-15, -0.27% on 9-14, -0.65% on 9-11, -1.07% on 9-10, -1.04% on 9-9, +0.02% on 9-8, -0.05% on 9-4, -0.45% on 9-3, -0.59% on 9-2, +0.82% on 9-1, -0.09% on 8-31, -0.69% on 8-28, -0.94% on 8-27, +0.33% on 8-26, -0.42% on 8-25, +1.26% on 8-24, -0.95% on 8-21, -0.08% on 8-20, +0.69% on 8-19, -1.35% on 8-18, +0.68% on 8-17, +0.23% on 8-14, -1.13% on 8-13, +0.30% on 8-12, -0.20% on 8-11, -0.47% on 8-10, -0.18% on 8-7, +0.42% on 8-6, +0.22% on 8-5, +0.21% on 8-4, -1.65% on 8-3, -1.19% on 7-31, -2.21% on 7-30, +1.39% on 7-29, +0.18% on 7-28, -0.04% on 7-27, +0.14% on 7-24, -0.31% on 7-23, +0.08% on 7-22, +1.52% on 7-21, -1.51% on 7-20, +0.08% on 7-17, -0.82% on 7-16, -0.09% on 7-15, -0.19% on 7-14, -1.21% on 7-13, +0.01% on 7-10, -1.56% on 7-9, -0.07% on 7-8, -0.24% on 7-7, +0.96% on 7-6, +0.74% on 7-2, +0.55% on 7-1, -0.21% on 6-30, +0.71% on 6-29, -0.54% on 6-26, +0.33% on 6-25, -0.90% on 6-24, -1.22% on 6-23, +1.36% on 6-22, -0.40% on 6-19, +0.10% on 6-18, +1.47% on 6-17, -0.25% on 6-16, +1.45% on 6-15, +0.93% on 6-12, -0.53% on 6-11, +0.39% on 6-10, -0.90% on 6-9, +0.37% on 6-8, +0.64% on 6-5, -0.59% on 6-4, +3.51% on 6-3, +2.44% on 6-2, +0.17% on 6-1, -1.65% on 5-29, -1.79% on 5-28, -1.27% on 5-27, -0.45% on 5-26, +0.67% on 5-22, +0.48% on 5-21, -1.97% on 5-20, -0.49% on 5-19, -1.02% on 5-18, +1.06% on 5-15, +0.11% on 5-14, +1.45% on 5-13, +1.65% on 5-12, +1.01% on 5-11, -1.79% on 5-8, +1.48% on 5-7, -2.03% on 5-6, +0.33% on 5-5, -2.76% on 5-4, -1.30% on 5-1.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.72 (filled), 50.70 (filled), 49.15 (filled), 49.84 (filled), 51.07 (filled), 51.28 (filled), 51.80 (filled), 52.61 (filled), 53.43 (filled), 53.80 (filled), 54.96 (filled), and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 54.55 (filled), 54.28 (filled), 52.97 (filled), 51.55 (filled), 51.25, 51.22 (filled), 50.92 (filled), 50.91 (filled), 50.51 (filled), 50.38, 50.19 (filled), 49.76 (filled), 49.68 (filled), 49.61 (filled), 49.37 (filled), 49.06.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 1110.63 (filled), 1109.80 (filled), 1096.56 (filled), 1094.90 (filled), 1076.19 (filled), 1068.30 (filled), 1066.11 (filled), 1063.41 (filled), 1028.93 (filled), 1012.73 (filled), 1010.48 (filled), 1004.09 (filled), 979.62 (filled), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 1095.63, 1093.48 (filled), 1093.01 (filled), 1091.38 (filled), 1073.19 (filled), 1071.49 (filled), 1069.30, 1064.66 (filled), 1057.58 (filled), 1046.50, 1044.38 (filled), 1042.63 (filled), 1040.46 (filled), 1025.57 (filled), 1025.21, 1016.40, 1007.37 (filled), 997.08 (filled), 987.48 (filled), 975.15, 940.38, 905.84, 919.32 (filled), 895.10 (filled), 877.52 (filled), 855.16, 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 is peaking in rollover mode, versus the 10-15-09/10-16-09, 6-1-09, and 4-17-09 cycle highs. See the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU strength from 4-17-09 to now is peaking in rollover mode/upside surprise, of the Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 for the XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator closed at +1.22% versus the XAU today/on 12-7, +0.84% on 12-4, +0.04% on 12-3, -1.91% on 12-2, -1.14% on 12-1, +0.44% on 11-30, +1.00% on 11-27, +0.66% on 11-24, +0.60% on 11-23, +0.08% on 11-20, -0.71% on 11-19, +1.22% on 11-18, +0.21% on 11-17, -0.17% on 11-16, +0.67% on 11-13, -0.45% on 11-12, +0.98% on 11-11, -0.38% on 11-10, -0.93% on 11-9, +1.96% on 11-6, -0.86 on 11-5, +1.12% on 11-4, +0.30% on 11-3, -0.78% on 11-2, +4.40% on 10-30, -0.99% on 10-29, +0.98% on 10-28, +1.21% on 10-27, +0.35% on 10-26, -0.17% on 10-23, +0.02% on 10-22, -0.97% on 10-21, +0.06% on 10-20, -0.17% on 10-19, -0.33% on 10-16, +0.16% on 10-15, -0.67% on 10-14, +0.76% on 10-13, +0.14% on 10-12, -0.61% on 10-9, -0.46% on 10-8, -0.70% on 10-7, +0.85% on 10-6, -0.72% on 10-5, -0.26% on 10-2, +0.92% on 10-1, -0.66% on 9-30, -0.12% on 9-29, -0.76% on 9-28, +0.41% on 9-25, +1.57% on 9-24, -0.50% on 9-23, -0.49% on 9-22, -0.02% on 9-21, -0.11% on 9-18, -0.97% on 9-17, -0.98% on 9-16, -0.31% on 9-15, -0.43% on 9-14, -0.31% on 9-11, -0.45% on 9-10, +0.97% on 9-9, -1.29% on 9-8, -0.24% on 9-4, -0.41% on 9-3, +0.71% on 9-2, +1.69% on 9-1, -0.68% on 8-31, +0.28% on 8-28, -0.15% on 8-27, +0.23% on 8-26, +0.37% on 8-25, -1.38% on 8-24, -0.18% on 8-21, -0.03% on 8-20 (yes, the same as 8-19), -0.03% on 8-19, -0.31% on 8-18, +0.05% on 8-17 (yes, the same as 8-14), +0.05% on 8-14, -0.52% on 8-13, -0.12% on 8-12, +0.30% on 8-11, +0.10% on 8-10, +0.64% on 8-7, +1.25% on 8-6, +0.05% on 8-5, +0.37% on 8-4, -2.10% on 8-3, -0.08% on 7-31, -1.76% on 7-30, +0.36% on 7-29, +1.04% on 7-28, -0.03% on 7-27, -0.14% on 7-24, -1.30% on 7-23, -0.63% on 7-22, +1.03% on 7-21, -1.05% on 7-20, -0.81% on 7-17, +0.22% on 7-16, -1.20% on 7-15, -0.27% on 7-14, -0.26% on 7-13, -0.16% on 7-10, -0.53% on 7-9, -0.46% on 7-8, +0.30% on 7-7, +2.14% on 7-6, -1.30% on 7-2, -0.61% on 7-1.
The five day intraday gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator closed at bearish (-0.50% to -0.99% vs XAU) today 12-7-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, that must be used in concert with the sector lead indicator, closed at/near bullish today (+0.50% to +0.99% vs SPX) today 12-7-09, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 53.68 (filled), 51.45 (filled), 51.1069 (filled), 50.82 (filled), 49.78 (filled), 47.62, 46.85 (filled), 46.72, 45.54 (filled), 45.15 (filled), 45.02 (filled), 44.56 (filled), 43.04 (filled), 42.76 (filled), 42.48 (filled), 41.87 (filled), 39.76 (filled), 39.57 (filled), 38.79 (on 9-2, coincidence that it's the same price as a previously filled gap), 38.79 (filled), 38.89 (filled), 38.61 (filled), 37.30 (filled), 37.18 (filled), 36.76, 35.93, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
NEM has downside gaps at 55.66 (filled), 53.64, 53.35 (filled), 52.26 (filled), 50.99, 50.46 (filled), 49.64, 49.04, 47.25, 46.73 (filled), 46.48 (on 11-4-09, same as previous), 46.48 (filled), 46.12 (filled), 44.41 (filled), 43.20 (filled), 42.12 (filled), 41.50, 40.47 (filled), 40.18 (on 9-2), 40.04 (filled), 39.94 (filled), 39.37 (filled), 38.77 (filled), 38.45, and TBD.
GDX has very bearish breakaway upside gaps at 54.78, 53.53, 52.83 (filled), 51.10 (filled), 49.13 (filled), 47.78 (filled), 46.09 (filled), 45.92 (filled), 44.55 (filled), 44.47 (filled), 43.80 (filled), 43.51 (filled), 40.92 (filled), 40.18 (filled), 39.98 (filled), 39.24 (filled), 39.21 (filled), 39.10 (filled), and, NEM has ones at 55.83, 54.90 (filled), 54.58, 52.66 (filled), 51.24 (filled), 47.44 (filled), 47.35 (filled), 44.96 (filled), 44.11 (filled), 41.54 (filled), 41.42 (filled), 40.63 (filled), 40.30 (filled).
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal 45 weeks ago, see annotated chart three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:31 PM
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