.....Early SPX Weakness Is Likely Tomorrow
Early SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) weakness is likely tomorrow/Wednesday 12-9-09. One indication pointing to early SPX/market weakness tomorrow is that a bearish unusually large +7.19% rise in VIX/fear occurred today 12-8-09. Also, market breadth was negative today, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow; see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Another bearish indication for early tomorrow is that the one day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was modestly bearish at session's end, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) chart reveals the bearish rapid unusually large rise in VIX/fear the past few days, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
Additionally, SPX's daily candle is a somewhat bearish red (close below the open) with only a tiny inverse spike, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The bearish indications jive with SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday Elliott Wave count, for the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle that began shortly before noon, see (click the five day chart after today to see 12-8-09) the intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
The tricky part of the Elliott Wave count is that the decline from 1 pm until shortly before 3 pm is the large Wave 3 downcycle of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) downcycle that began shortly before noon, which itself did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (frequently Wave 3s have their own well defined inverse (or regular for upcycles) Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) see (click the five day chart after today to see 12-8-09) the intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) appears to have entered Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle (began shortly before noon) very late today, and, if so, early weakness is likely tomorrow, which jives with the bearish indications discussed earlier.
The very bullish five day SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) vs Lead Indicator Walmart/WMT chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 makes sense also, because, SPX ended the session in Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle (began shortly before noon), and, it appears that early weakness tomorrow (Wednesday 12-9-09) will probably be relatively short lived.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 is the one to watch early tomorrow (Wednesday 12-9-09), but, it's doubtful that 1069.30 is the next gap to get filled. Based on the very bullish five day SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) vs Lead Indicator Walmart/WMT chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 SPX will probably at least make a good attempt at filling today's upside gap at 1103.25, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3, before probably turning down again and filling the 1069.30 downside gap/magnet.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I was all over SPX today, and, I'm strengthening my Fibonacci and price versus volume skills, while always trying to improve my cycles and Elliott Wave count assessment skills, using candlestick charts of various timeframes (daily/weekly/intraday/5 day intraday etc and 1 to 30 minute (real time obviously) candles), and, volume plus other indicators.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 2 day nearly 66% volume spike from 12-2 to 12-4 pointed to Friday 12-4-09 being an important cycle high.
Early today 12-8-09 SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) completed a Fibonacci 0.382 retrace (about +8 pts vs -21ish decline) of the decline that began yesterday 12-7-09, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH. Also, it's not a coincidence that SPX bottomed at 1088.61 very early today, very soon after filling the 1095.63 downside gap.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) chart reveals the bearish rapid unusually large rise in VIX/fear the past few days, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
Additionally, SPX's daily candle is a somewhat bearish red (close below the open) with only a tiny inverse spike, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
The bearish indications jive with SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday Elliott Wave count, for the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle that began shortly before noon, see (click the five day chart after today to see 12-8-09) the intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
The tricky part of the Elliott Wave count is that the decline from 1 pm until shortly before 3 pm is the large Wave 3 downcycle of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) downcycle that began shortly before noon, which itself did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (frequently Wave 3s have their own well defined inverse (or regular for upcycles) Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) see (click the five day chart after today to see 12-8-09) the intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) appears to have entered Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle (began shortly before noon) very late today, and, if so, early weakness is likely tomorrow, which jives with the bearish indications discussed earlier.
The very bullish five day SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) vs Lead Indicator Walmart/WMT chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 makes sense also, because, SPX ended the session in Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle (began shortly before noon), and, it appears that early weakness tomorrow (Wednesday 12-9-09) will probably be relatively short lived.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 is the one to watch early tomorrow (Wednesday 12-9-09), but, it's doubtful that 1069.30 is the next gap to get filled. Based on the very bullish five day SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) vs Lead Indicator Walmart/WMT chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 SPX will probably at least make a good attempt at filling today's upside gap at 1103.25, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3, before probably turning down again and filling the 1069.30 downside gap/magnet.
Follow my live updates (the "play by play") on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I was all over SPX today, and, I'm strengthening my Fibonacci and price versus volume skills, while always trying to improve my cycles and Elliott Wave count assessment skills, using candlestick charts of various timeframes (daily/weekly/intraday/5 day intraday etc and 1 to 30 minute (real time obviously) candles), and, volume plus other indicators.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) 2 day nearly 66% volume spike from 12-2 to 12-4 pointed to Friday 12-4-09 being an important cycle high.
Early today 12-8-09 SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) completed a Fibonacci 0.382 retrace (about +8 pts vs -21ish decline) of the decline that began yesterday 12-7-09, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH. Also, it's not a coincidence that SPX bottomed at 1088.61 very early today, very soon after filling the 1095.63 downside gap.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:48 PM
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