Would You Believe The NDX (NASDAQ 100) Lead Indicator?
I need to watch this for a while, but, it looks like NDX (NASDAQ 100) might be a useful SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Lead Indicator, see the five day NDX Lead Indicator chart http://bit.ly/4Ub363, to complement the reliable broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, see the five day WMT Lead Indicator chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9.
It might be that NDX (NASDAQ 100) tends to be a better very short term lead indicator than Walmart (WMT) is, and, WMT might be a better lead indicator for short term and longer cycle timeframes, or, maybe both used "in concert" are better than either is alone. I need to observe and analyze both closely for a while.
Right now the five day WMT Lead Indicator chart (at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9) is bullish, while the five day NDX (NASDAQ 100) Lead Indicator chart (at http://bit.ly/4Ub363) is slightly bearish.
However, the intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is in modestly bearish territory (-0.25% to -0.49% vs SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5, and, the intraday NDX (NASDAQ 100) Lead Indicator chart, see http://bit.ly/7DjXMN, is clearly bearish. It looks like SPX will probably try to fill the downside gap at 1095.95 from 12-10-09's open early on Monday.
We'll have to watch the relationship between WMT (Walmart), NDX (NASDAQ 100), and SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) for a while. It looks like both WMT (Walmart) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) will be useful lead indicators, and, used in concert, they will probably be better than either used solo.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was a very light 3.053 billion shares on Friday 12-11-09 versus the 60 day EMA at 3.845 billion shares, which is obviously a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing Friday's modest strength, suggesting that SPX will probably try to fill the downside gap at 1095.95 from 12-10-09's open early on Monday.
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It might be that NDX (NASDAQ 100) tends to be a better very short term lead indicator than Walmart (WMT) is, and, WMT might be a better lead indicator for short term and longer cycle timeframes, or, maybe both used "in concert" are better than either is alone. I need to observe and analyze both closely for a while.
Right now the five day WMT Lead Indicator chart (at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9) is bullish, while the five day NDX (NASDAQ 100) Lead Indicator chart (at http://bit.ly/4Ub363) is slightly bearish.
However, the intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is in modestly bearish territory (-0.25% to -0.49% vs SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)), see http://bit.ly/4vMVz5, and, the intraday NDX (NASDAQ 100) Lead Indicator chart, see http://bit.ly/7DjXMN, is clearly bearish. It looks like SPX will probably try to fill the downside gap at 1095.95 from 12-10-09's open early on Monday.
We'll have to watch the relationship between WMT (Walmart), NDX (NASDAQ 100), and SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) for a while. It looks like both WMT (Walmart) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) will be useful lead indicators, and, used in concert, they will probably be better than either used solo.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was a very light 3.053 billion shares on Friday 12-11-09 versus the 60 day EMA at 3.845 billion shares, which is obviously a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing Friday's modest strength, suggesting that SPX will probably try to fill the downside gap at 1095.95 from 12-10-09's open early on Monday.
Follow me on Twitter. See the Trade the Cycles system and tools/indicators rigorously applied at Twitter (plus many other occasional topics: economics, health, social media, internet, etc), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. It's easy to join, then all you have to do is click follow, or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:09 AM
1 Comments:
Yes I do believe it. I like to use a compare charge of the different sectors in the S&P 500. The Financial Sector lead the big run up...however as of late the QQQQ's have for the most part been the sector to watch. Right now we are seeing movement into the consumer staples and other move defense plays. If you look at Friday trading action you will see the at 10:45 both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 made the low of the day at the same time. At the same time Consumer Staples start to grid down. This is asset allocation to more growth and risk. Further more you will notice that at 9:55 Consumer Sentiment came in with a surprise to the up side. This would make me allocate more money to the Tech and growth stocks.
By
dnk, at 1:01 PM
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