It's No Coincidence SPX Put In Session Cycle Low Very Soon After Filling Today's Downside Gap/Magnet at 1096.08
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) put in a session cycle low (at 1093.88) very soon after filling today's downside gap/magnet at 1096.08, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) was trying to fill the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from yesterday 12-17-09's open at session's end today (1109.18 upside gap is the next point in the trading roadmap; the 1069.30 downside gap is probably next, after 1109.18 probably gets filled), and, will probably continue to early on Monday, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets yesterday, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT. SPX created a bearish upside breakaway gap at 1109.18 at yesterday's open.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) entered a LARGE Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle on Wednesday 12-16-09 (this is a much more important piece of info than any indicator), see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:. Note that 12-16-09's candle is basically just a bearish spike, and, that SPX had rolled over dramatically during the three sessions ending 12-16-09, making very little upside progress.
Watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1069.30, after the 1109.18 upside gap probably gets filled early on Monday (nearly all gaps get filled), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3,. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. SPX created a bearish upside breakaway gap at 1109.18 at today's open.
Correction: SPX volume apparently was only 3.444 billion shares today 12-18-09, not a massive 6.072 billion shares, a bearish sign, because, the big money wasn't chasing today's choppy action in a meaningful way.
SPX volume shot up to 4.518 billion shares on Wednesday 12-16-09 vs 4.310 billion shares on 12-15-09 vs 12-11-09's very light 3.053 billion shares (3.220 billion shares today), which reveals that the big money was exiting as SPX rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart was "risky bullish" at session's end, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is extremely bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -2.00%+, which is usually a very short term bullish indication. The probably large Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle is a huge factor now; cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations; indicators are evaluated after a clear (unclear at times obviously, but, one can still see if a cycle is rolling over/weakening, etc) understanding of them.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is near neutral/maybe slightly bearish, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn..
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially intraday today 12-18-09, which is a very bearish indication, because, it's a very sharp rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially today 12-18-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Monday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -3.69% vs SPX up +0.58% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Monday 12-21-09, because, it's a very sharp +3.11% rise in complacency/-3.11% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness is likely early on Monday, after likely very early strength/upside gap filling action/1109.18.
Market breadth was/closed at modestly bullish/mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is a bullish indication, once the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since 12-16-09 bottoms, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) was trying to fill the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from yesterday 12-17-09's open at session's end today (1109.18 upside gap is the next point in the trading roadmap; the 1069.30 downside gap is probably next, after 1109.18 probably gets filled), and, will probably continue to early on Monday, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets yesterday, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT. SPX created a bearish upside breakaway gap at 1109.18 at yesterday's open.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) entered a LARGE Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle on Wednesday 12-16-09 (this is a much more important piece of info than any indicator), see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:. Note that 12-16-09's candle is basically just a bearish spike, and, that SPX had rolled over dramatically during the three sessions ending 12-16-09, making very little upside progress.
Watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1069.30, after the 1109.18 upside gap probably gets filled early on Monday (nearly all gaps get filled), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3,. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. SPX created a bearish upside breakaway gap at 1109.18 at today's open.
Correction: SPX volume apparently was only 3.444 billion shares today 12-18-09, not a massive 6.072 billion shares, a bearish sign, because, the big money wasn't chasing today's choppy action in a meaningful way.
SPX volume shot up to 4.518 billion shares on Wednesday 12-16-09 vs 4.310 billion shares on 12-15-09 vs 12-11-09's very light 3.053 billion shares (3.220 billion shares today), which reveals that the big money was exiting as SPX rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart was "risky bullish" at session's end, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is extremely bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -2.00%+, which is usually a very short term bullish indication. The probably large Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle is a huge factor now; cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations; indicators are evaluated after a clear (unclear at times obviously, but, one can still see if a cycle is rolling over/weakening, etc) understanding of them.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is near neutral/maybe slightly bearish, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn..
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially intraday today 12-18-09, which is a very bearish indication, because, it's a very sharp rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially today 12-18-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Monday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -3.69% vs SPX up +0.58% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Monday 12-21-09, because, it's a very sharp +3.11% rise in complacency/-3.11% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness is likely early on Monday, after likely very early strength/upside gap filling action/1109.18.
Market breadth was/closed at modestly bullish/mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Monday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is a bullish indication, once the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since 12-16-09 bottoms, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:31 PM
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