SPX Has Probably Entered a LARGE Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has probably entered a LARGE Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle (Short Term Wave 2 Upcycle since 12-9-09 probably peaked), see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3:. Note that today's candle is basically just a bearish spike, and, that SPX has rolled over dramatically the past three sessions, making very little upside progress.
Watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1107.93 from today's open, see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. SPX missed filling that gap by only 0.03 late today, and, will probably fill it early tomorrow. 1095.95 then 1069.30 are the downside gaps after that.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is extremely bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -2.00%+.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from very early Wednesday 12-9-09 to very early today 12-16-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it was a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose sharply today 12-16-09, after a very early crash, which is a bullish indication for early tomorrow/Thursday (likely very early weakness/downside gap filling action/1107.93), see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -4.42% vs SPX up +0.11% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Thursday 12-17-09, because, it's a +4.31% rise in complacency/-4.31% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness is likely early on Thursday.
Market breadth was/closed at bullish (with warts) today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bullish indication for early Thursday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX probably peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication (once the upcycle since very early 12-9-09 peaks; it probably did peak on 12-14-09), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
Watch SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1107.93 from today's open, see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. SPX missed filling that gap by only 0.03 late today, and, will probably fill it early tomorrow. 1095.95 then 1069.30 are the downside gaps after that.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is extremely bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -2.00%+.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed dramatically from very early Wednesday 12-9-09 to very early today 12-16-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it was a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) rose sharply today 12-16-09, after a very early crash, which is a bullish indication for early tomorrow/Thursday (likely very early weakness/downside gap filling action/1107.93), see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -4.42% vs SPX up +0.11% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Thursday 12-17-09, because, it's a +4.31% rise in complacency/-4.31% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness is likely early on Thursday.
Market breadth was/closed at bullish (with warts) today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bullish indication for early Thursday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX probably peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication (once the upcycle since very early 12-9-09 peaks; it probably did peak on 12-14-09), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it might have peaked (major cycle high, NOTE that the upcycle began in November 2008) at 1815.60 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/73BXOt, rolling over dramatically/bearish double top with the 1814.25 cycle high on 11-16-09.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
3:08 PM
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