It Looks Like SPX Will Try To Fill Today's Downside Gap/Magnet at 1102.47
It looks like tomorrow SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will try to fill today 12-21-09's downside gap/magnet at 1102.47 from the open. The 1109.18 upside gap/magnet from 12-17-09's open got filled today as expected/discussed on Friday. Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. The 1119.13 cycle high from 12-4-09 held today.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart is/looks bearish, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH. After putting in a session cycle high at 1117.68 at mid session SPX did a down up down up pattern, that appears to be Wave A down, followed by a countertrend Wave B up, followed by Wave A of Wave C and Wave B of Wave C (also Waves 1 down, 2 up, 3 down, and 4 up), so, it looks like SPX will do a probably brief Wave C of Wave C/Wave 5 down move at tomorrow's open. Note that SPX put in a bearish spike shortly before session's end, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) started to roll over dramatically soon after filling the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from 12-17-09's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. Today's strength was basically just a brief gap filling spike. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
A factor today was that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets on Thursday 12-17-09, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was only 3.360 billion shares today 12-21-09 vs the 60 day EMA at 3.833 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing today's early strength/late weakness in a meaningful way.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is very bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -1.00% to -1.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at modestly bullish today, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed since early Friday 12-18-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially today 12-21-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -5.49% vs SPX up +1.05% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Tuesday 12-22-09, because, it's a very sharp +4.44% rise in complacency/-4.44% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap filling action/1102.47 is likely early on Tuesday.
Market breadth was/closed at bullish/mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bullish indication for early Tuesday (might already be factored into today's strength, since it was bullish the entire session), see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX might have peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is a bullish indication, once the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since 12-16-09 bottoms, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOt.
The precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at http://bit.ly/6Kl4GQ.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart is/looks bearish, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH. After putting in a session cycle high at 1117.68 at mid session SPX did a down up down up pattern, that appears to be Wave A down, followed by a countertrend Wave B up, followed by Wave A of Wave C and Wave B of Wave C (also Waves 1 down, 2 up, 3 down, and 4 up), so, it looks like SPX will do a probably brief Wave C of Wave C/Wave 5 down move at tomorrow's open. Note that SPX put in a bearish spike shortly before session's end, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
It's no coincidence that SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) started to roll over dramatically soon after filling the upside gap/magnet at 1109.18 from 12-17-09's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. Today's strength was basically just a brief gap filling spike. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
A factor today was that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) filled two gaps/magnets on Thursday 12-17-09, the 1107.93 downside gap from 12-16-09's open, and, the 1095.95 downside gap from 12-10-09's open (1095.88 session cycle low, once again a session cycle low or cycle high occurred very soon after a gap got filled), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was only 3.360 billion shares today 12-21-09 vs the 60 day EMA at 3.833 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing today's early strength/late weakness in a meaningful way.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is very bearish, since WMT's leading to downside by -1.00% to -1.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR.
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at modestly bullish today, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn.
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) crashed since early Friday 12-18-09, which is an extremely bearish indication, because, it's a huge rise in complacency, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) collapsed substantially today 12-21-09, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Tuesday, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc.
VIX was down -5.49% vs SPX up +1.05% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Tuesday 12-22-09, because, it's a very sharp +4.44% rise in complacency/-4.44% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, weakness/downside gap filling action/1102.47 is likely early on Tuesday.
Market breadth was/closed at bullish/mixed today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bullish indication for early Tuesday (might already be factored into today's strength, since it was bullish the entire session), see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations, and, SPX might have peaked at 1119.13 very early on Friday 12-4-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has been extremely flat the past month, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT, which looks like important peaking action, the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking.
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is a bullish indication, once the Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle since 12-16-09 bottoms, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a substantial -$19.268 Billion in the five day period ending 12-9-09, which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds..
Fed Credit contracted a significant -$2.759 Billion in the five day period ending 12-2-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$1.552 Billion in the five day period ending 11-25-09, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
An SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) major cycle high (cycle began 3-6-09) might have occurred at 1119.13 on Friday 12-4-09, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Note the bearish short white (close above the open) candle with a medium spike on Friday 12-4-09, and, that SPX has made very little upside progress in recent weeks (less than 6 points peak to peak since 11-16-09), it has rolled over dramatically.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume increased dramatically again on Friday 12-4-09, like it did on Thursday 12-3-09 (see volume bars at http://bit.ly/i0nsT), rising +23.78% (two day rise of nearly 66%) to 5.133 billion shares from 4.147 billion shares on 12-3-09 from only 3.135 billion shares on 12-2-09, which jives with Friday probably being at least an important Short Term Cycle High, if not also a very important Major Cycle High (cycle began 3-6-09). A dramatic volume spike tends to occur at/very near an important cycle high or low, for all cycle timeframes.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOt.
The precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at http://bit.ly/6Kl4GQ.
"The market" basically probably peaked in September, when RUT/Russell 2000 (http://bit.ly/2UFqrk) and DJUSRE/Real Estate (http://bit.ly/4EmXGG) probably peaked on 9-23-09 and 9-17-09, and, when a dramatic multi day market volume spike occurred (6 billion shares area), see the volume bars at the bottom of http://bit.ly/i0nsT, confirming that important peaking action was probably occurring.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is/was peaking.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:34 PM
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