The Very Short Term S & P 500 (SPX) Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Peaked Today at 861.78
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/most indexes countertrend Wave B upcycle (probably also Wave 2 up, of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle, assuming that SPX peaked on 4-17) that began shortly after yesterday 4-21's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, peaked today at 861.78, which means that Monday 4-20's upside gap at 869.60 is an unfilled bearish breakaway gap, and, the SPX (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) since 3-6-09 probably peaked on 4-17-09.
Today's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) bearish medium spike on a bearish red candle (close below the open) is probably a Wave 2 cycle high, of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle.
Notice also that broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) has a bearish medium spike on a bearish red candle (close below the open), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
I won't say that SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (since 3-6-09) has very likely peaked until downside gap filling action begins, but, I will say that it's likely that SPX has peaked, because of the indicators, the five day intraday candlestick chart (at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), and, the DJUSFN bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn.
SPX (S & P 500) ended the session in a Wave A (also Wave 1 down, it's useful to use/keep in mind both Elliott Wave ABC and inverse 12345 patterns for downcycles) down type move, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Watch the S & P 500 (SPX) downside gaps at 825.16 and 811.08 tomorrow.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a significant +1.81% rise in fear/+1.81% rise in the wall of worry today 4-22, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -0.77% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +2.58%, which points to likely significant SPX (S & P 500)/market strength early on Thursday 4-23-09, after likely very early weakness.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.98% versus the S & P 500 today/on 4-22, and, it was a bearish -0.99% on 4-21.
The extremely bearish five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at session's end today 4-22-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, jives with early strength on Thursday, following likely weakness very early on, because, it's a very short term bullish indication.
Friday 4-17's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) cycle high is probably the end of the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) since 3-6-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index (DJUSFN) put in a bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn, so, the DJUSFN countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF, 319+ million shares!) overnight, purchased today 4-22 at 8.85, so, I'm obviously happy, since it closed at 9.91, up +1.06 (+11.98%) from my purchase price, which is easily my biggest day of the year, on paper at least, since I'm still long.
Please see my Twitter site for the "play by play." Don't be shy about joining, it's quick and easy to join, and, Twitter is very fun and highly useful, or, you can simply follow my Twitter site.
One way to check for a possible market surprise, on a day like today was, or for whatever timeframe one's trading, is to check the S & P 500 (SPX) wall of worry, by comparing SPX to the SPX Volatility Index VIX , see today's comparison at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. VIX works similarly to a lead indicator.
What one needs to do is to compare SPX to VIX, by simply adding them, as I do every day on this Blog after the close. A significant/substantially positive number points to strength (significant/substantial rise in fear) and a significant/substantially negative number points to weakness (significant/substantial rise in complacency), BUT, ANY indicator/tool is secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and, gaps.
For an unusually large number, as regular readers know, greater than or equal to + or - 6%, only for a SINGLE SESSION, an unusually large rise in fear points to significant/potentially severe weakness in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough), and, an unusually large rise in complacency points to significant/potentially substantial strength in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough).
The collapse in the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (from 3-6-09 to 4-17-09 in this case), and, vice versa.
When the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaks, it'll probably be obvious (yup!, probably did on 4-17-09). There will probably be a very large -3% to -5%+ decline in a session or two, and, maybe a large bearish breakaway gap will occur and/or a large bearish spike on the daily candle. Also, once downside gap filling action begins (825.16, 811.08, 768.54, etc), then, it's very likely that SPX (S & P 500) has peaked.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at -0.98% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.98% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-22, it was -0.23% on 4-21, it was +2.60% on 4-20, -1.00% on 4-17, -1.62% on 4-16, +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Based on the S & P 500 (SPX) intraday chart's cycles, Elliott Wave count, and, the indicators, weakness is likely very early on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) is in a Wave A/Wave 1 downcycle, of the downcycle that began early today 4-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which probably peaked very late on Friday 4-17-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle, that began on 3-6-09 and probably peaked on 4-17-09, was Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
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Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Tuesday 4-21, the five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator closed at very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a large Wave 5 down (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -1.37% versus the XAU today/on 4-22, +0.95% on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish the past eleven sessions, at -1.37% versus the XAU today/on 4-22, +0.95% on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal twelve weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Today's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) bearish medium spike on a bearish red candle (close below the open) is probably a Wave 2 cycle high, of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle.
Notice also that broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) has a bearish medium spike on a bearish red candle (close below the open), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
I won't say that SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (since 3-6-09) has very likely peaked until downside gap filling action begins, but, I will say that it's likely that SPX has peaked, because of the indicators, the five day intraday candlestick chart (at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), and, the DJUSFN bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn.
SPX (S & P 500) ended the session in a Wave A (also Wave 1 down, it's useful to use/keep in mind both Elliott Wave ABC and inverse 12345 patterns for downcycles) down type move, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Watch the S & P 500 (SPX) downside gaps at 825.16 and 811.08 tomorrow.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a significant +1.81% rise in fear/+1.81% rise in the wall of worry today 4-22, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -0.77% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +2.58%, which points to likely significant SPX (S & P 500)/market strength early on Thursday 4-23-09, after likely very early weakness.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.98% versus the S & P 500 today/on 4-22, and, it was a bearish -0.99% on 4-21.
The extremely bearish five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at session's end today 4-22-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, jives with early strength on Thursday, following likely weakness very early on, because, it's a very short term bullish indication.
Friday 4-17's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) cycle high is probably the end of the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) since 3-6-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index (DJUSFN) put in a bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn, so, the DJUSFN countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
I'm long FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF, 319+ million shares!) overnight, purchased today 4-22 at 8.85, so, I'm obviously happy, since it closed at 9.91, up +1.06 (+11.98%) from my purchase price, which is easily my biggest day of the year, on paper at least, since I'm still long.
Please see my Twitter site for the "play by play." Don't be shy about joining, it's quick and easy to join, and, Twitter is very fun and highly useful, or, you can simply follow my Twitter site.
One way to check for a possible market surprise, on a day like today was, or for whatever timeframe one's trading, is to check the S & P 500 (SPX) wall of worry, by comparing SPX to the SPX Volatility Index VIX , see today's comparison at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. VIX works similarly to a lead indicator.
What one needs to do is to compare SPX to VIX, by simply adding them, as I do every day on this Blog after the close. A significant/substantially positive number points to strength (significant/substantial rise in fear) and a significant/substantially negative number points to weakness (significant/substantial rise in complacency), BUT, ANY indicator/tool is secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and, gaps.
For an unusually large number, as regular readers know, greater than or equal to + or - 6%, only for a SINGLE SESSION, an unusually large rise in fear points to significant/potentially severe weakness in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough), and, an unusually large rise in complacency points to significant/potentially substantial strength in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough).
The collapse in the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (from 3-6-09 to 4-17-09 in this case), and, vice versa.
When the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaks, it'll probably be obvious (yup!, probably did on 4-17-09). There will probably be a very large -3% to -5%+ decline in a session or two, and, maybe a large bearish breakaway gap will occur and/or a large bearish spike on the daily candle. Also, once downside gap filling action begins (825.16, 811.08, 768.54, etc), then, it's very likely that SPX (S & P 500) has peaked.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at -0.98% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-22, -0.99% on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.98% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-22, it was -0.23% on 4-21, it was +2.60% on 4-20, -1.00% on 4-17, -1.62% on 4-16, +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Based on the S & P 500 (SPX) intraday chart's cycles, Elliott Wave count, and, the indicators, weakness is likely very early on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) is in a Wave A/Wave 1 downcycle, of the downcycle that began early today 4-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which probably peaked very late on Friday 4-17-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle, that began on 3-6-09 and probably peaked on 4-17-09, was Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
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Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Tuesday 4-21, the five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator closed at very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a large Wave 5 down (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -1.37% versus the XAU today/on 4-22, +0.95% on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish the past eleven sessions, at -1.37% versus the XAU today/on 4-22, +0.95% on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal twelve weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, SRS, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:39 PM
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