A Very Short Term S & P 500 (SPX) Likely Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Began Shortly After Today's Open
An S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/most indexes very short term likely countertrend Wave B upcycle (probably also Wave 2 up, of an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle, assuming that SPX peaked on 4-17) began shortly after today's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500) ended the session in the final Wave 5 up of the very short term likely countertrend Wave B upcycle. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern today, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Watch the S & P 500 (SPX) upside gap at 869.60 from yesterday 4-20's open early tomorrow, though it probably won't get filled.
Based on the bearish indicators, and, from eyeing the five day intraday candlestick chart (at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) today 4-21's action is probably countertrend Wave B action, but, I'd rather have seen the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) fill it's downside gap at 825.16, it came close early today.
I won't say that SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (since 3-6-09) has very likely peaked until downside gap filling action begins, but, I will say that it's likely that SPX has peaked, because of the indicators, the five day intraday candlestick chart (at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), and, the DJUSFN bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a very sharp +3.08% rise in complacency/-3.08% decline in the wall of worry today 4-21, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +2.13% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -5.21%, which points to likely severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Wednesday 4-22-09, after likely brief strength at the open/very early on.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a bearish bordering on very bearish -0.99% versus the S & P 500 today/on 4-21.
The extremely bearish five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at session's end today 4-21-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, jives with early probably brief strength on Wednesday, because, it's a very short term bullish indication.
Friday 4-17's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) cycle high is probably the end of the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) since 3-6-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index (DJUSFN) put in a bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn, so, the DJUSFN countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
I'm looking to trade FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, once the DJUSFN completes a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, in progress, that peaks below Friday 4-17-09's cycle high.
Please see my Twitter site for the "play by play." Don't be shy about joining, it's quick and easy to join, and, Twitter is very fun and highly useful, or, you can simply follow my Twitter site.
With my 15 minute 38 second SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF, I made a little over 48 cents/share or $480+ for each 1000 shares traded) day trade today, I traded a DJUSRE Wave 4 down, thinking that the mid session rollover upcycle was a Wave 5 upcycle, but, it was Wave 3 peaking in rollover mode, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^djusre&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I knew that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator had turned very bearish at mid session, and, based on the cycle rolling over at mid session, it was likely to be profitable, but, from a one session point of view, it was a trade that I shouldn't have done. Usually, Waves 2 and 4 down will be similar in duration and percentage decline, which was a sign that the late mid session cycle high was a Wave 3 cycle high, not a Wave 5 cycle high. Also, the candle was a bullish white one, with a bearish but not overly large/bearish spike.
One way to check for a possible market surprise, on a day like today was, or for whatever timeframe one's trading, is to check the S & P 500 (SPX) wall of worry, by comparing SPX to the SPX Volatility Index VIX , see today's comparison at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. VIX works similarly to a lead indicator.
What one needs to do is to compare SPX to VIX, by simply adding them, as I do every day on this Blog after the close. A significant/substantially positive number points to strength (significant/substantial rise in fear) and a significant/substantially negative number points to weakness (significant/substantial rise in complacency), BUT, ANY indicator/tool is secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and, gaps.
For an unusually large number, as regular readers know, greater than or equal to + or - 6%, only for a SINGLE SESSION, an unusually large rise in fear points to significant/potentially severe weakness in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough), and, an unusually large rise in complacency points to significant/potentially substantial strength in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough).
The collapse in the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (from 3-6-09 to 4-17-09 in this case), and, vice versa.
When the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaks, it'll probably be obvious (yup!, probably did on 4-17-09). There will probably be a very large -3% to -5%+ decline in a session or two, and, maybe a large bearish breakaway gap will occur and/or a large bearish spike on the daily candle. Also, once downside gap filling action begins (825.16, 811.08, 768.54, etc), then, it's likely that SPX (S & P 500) has peaked.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at -0.99% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.23% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-21, it was +2.60% on 4-20, it was -1.00% on 4-17, -1.62% on 4-16, +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Based on the S & P 500 (SPX) intraday chart's cycles, Elliott Wave count, and, the indicators, severe weakness is likely early on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, after probably brief strength very early on.
Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) is in a Wave 4 upcycle,
of the downcycle that began early on Thursday 4-16 (down up down up pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which probably peaked very late on Friday 4-17-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle, that began on 3-6-09 and probably peaked on 4-17-09, was Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
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Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Monday 4-20, the five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator closed at bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a large Wave 5 down (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at +0.95% versus the XAU today/on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish the past ten sessions, at +0.95% versus the XAU today/on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal twelve weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
SPX (S & P 500) ended the session in the final Wave 5 up of the very short term likely countertrend Wave B upcycle. Note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern today, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Watch the S & P 500 (SPX) upside gap at 869.60 from yesterday 4-20's open early tomorrow, though it probably won't get filled.
Based on the bearish indicators, and, from eyeing the five day intraday candlestick chart (at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) today 4-21's action is probably countertrend Wave B action, but, I'd rather have seen the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) fill it's downside gap at 825.16, it came close early today.
I won't say that SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (since 3-6-09) has very likely peaked until downside gap filling action begins, but, I will say that it's likely that SPX has peaked, because of the indicators, the five day intraday candlestick chart (at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), and, the DJUSFN bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a very sharp +3.08% rise in complacency/-3.08% decline in the wall of worry today 4-21, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +2.13% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -5.21%, which points to likely severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Wednesday 4-22-09, after likely brief strength at the open/very early on.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a bearish bordering on very bearish -0.99% versus the S & P 500 today/on 4-21.
The extremely bearish five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at session's end today 4-21-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, jives with early probably brief strength on Wednesday, because, it's a very short term bullish indication.
Friday 4-17's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) cycle high is probably the end of the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) since 3-6-09, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index (DJUSFN) put in a bearish triple top last week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusfn, so, the DJUSFN countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
I'm looking to trade FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) overnight, once the DJUSFN completes a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, in progress, that peaks below Friday 4-17-09's cycle high.
Please see my Twitter site for the "play by play." Don't be shy about joining, it's quick and easy to join, and, Twitter is very fun and highly useful, or, you can simply follow my Twitter site.
With my 15 minute 38 second SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF, I made a little over 48 cents/share or $480+ for each 1000 shares traded) day trade today, I traded a DJUSRE Wave 4 down, thinking that the mid session rollover upcycle was a Wave 5 upcycle, but, it was Wave 3 peaking in rollover mode, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^djusre&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I knew that the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator had turned very bearish at mid session, and, based on the cycle rolling over at mid session, it was likely to be profitable, but, from a one session point of view, it was a trade that I shouldn't have done. Usually, Waves 2 and 4 down will be similar in duration and percentage decline, which was a sign that the late mid session cycle high was a Wave 3 cycle high, not a Wave 5 cycle high. Also, the candle was a bullish white one, with a bearish but not overly large/bearish spike.
One way to check for a possible market surprise, on a day like today was, or for whatever timeframe one's trading, is to check the S & P 500 (SPX) wall of worry, by comparing SPX to the SPX Volatility Index VIX , see today's comparison at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. VIX works similarly to a lead indicator.
What one needs to do is to compare SPX to VIX, by simply adding them, as I do every day on this Blog after the close. A significant/substantially positive number points to strength (significant/substantial rise in fear) and a significant/substantially negative number points to weakness (significant/substantial rise in complacency), BUT, ANY indicator/tool is secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and, gaps.
For an unusually large number, as regular readers know, greater than or equal to + or - 6%, only for a SINGLE SESSION, an unusually large rise in fear points to significant/potentially severe weakness in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough), and, an unusually large rise in complacency points to significant/potentially substantial strength in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough).
The collapse in the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (from 3-6-09 to 4-17-09 in this case), and, vice versa.
When the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaks, it'll probably be obvious (yup!, probably did on 4-17-09). There will probably be a very large -3% to -5%+ decline in a session or two, and, maybe a large bearish breakaway gap will occur and/or a large bearish spike on the daily candle. Also, once downside gap filling action begins (825.16, 811.08, 768.54, etc), then, it's likely that SPX (S & P 500) has peaked.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at -0.99% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-21, +2.43% on 4-20, -1.64% on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.23% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-21, it was +2.60% on 4-20, it was -1.00% on 4-17, -1.62% on 4-16, +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Based on the S & P 500 (SPX) intraday chart's cycles, Elliott Wave count, and, the indicators, severe weakness is likely early on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, after probably brief strength very early on.
Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) is in a Wave 4 upcycle,
of the downcycle that began early on Thursday 4-16 (down up down up pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which probably peaked very late on Friday 4-17-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle, that began on 3-6-09 and probably peaked on 4-17-09, was Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
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Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Monday 4-20, the five day intraday NEM Lead Indicator closed at bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=NEM&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=^xau.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a large Wave 5 down (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at +0.95% versus the XAU today/on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish the past ten sessions, at +0.95% versus the XAU today/on 4-21, -0.02% on 4-20, -0.93% on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal twelve weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SRS, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:28 PM
4 Comments:
Joe, seems like your in somewhat of a minority on a major pullback, I assume you think the wave b countertrend may now be over, what kind of a move down are you expecting in the short term, the next couple weeks, any target?
Blog remains my must read multiple times daily.
By
CRS, at 10:21 AM
Hi CRS,
The S & P 500 (SPX) should bottom well below the Wave A type cycle low that occurred at 666.79 on 3-6-09, some time in the next few months. Ciao, thanks for the kind words, and, good luck.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:27 AM
Twitter when you unload the FAZ, I followed you in.
Sorry about your mom too, i have been catching on your old posts from way back.
By
CRS, at 10:49 AM
OK, CRS, will do, this could be a huge week. Thanks concerning my mother.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:36 PM
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