SPX's (S & P 500) Countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle Since 3-6-09 Might Have Peaked Late Yesterday
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 (Wave B up of intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09) might have peaked late yesterday 4-13, note the large bearish spike on the five day intraday chart late today 4-14, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500) closed the session in Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle since late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Watch the 825.16 and 811.08 downside gaps tomorrow. If gap filling action occurs tomorrow (likely), then the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
If one looks at a non logarithmic chart (which is what one should use) of SPX (S & P 500) one can see that SPX's peaks have rolled over dramatically since mid March, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The Dow Jones Real Estate and Finance Indexes are probably great shorts now (SRS and FAZ rocked today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^djusre&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^djusfn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note the clear inverse Elliott Wave 12345 patterns they have since late yesterday. I'll look to day trade one of them short early tomorrow, if I can get a good entry point.
It would have been risky to day trade short today (I was busy for a good part of the session anyway and couldn't day trade), because, it's almost always better (especially with super volatile ultra ETFs) to wait for the expected action, then enter a trade (short in this case) during a countertrend move, and, it still hasn't been established that the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 (Wave B up of intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09) has peaked. However, after seeing today's action and the indicators, I might day trade $DJUSFN or $DJUSRE ultra short early tomorrow via FAZ or SRS.
For example, I'll look to trade FAZ or SRS overnight once $DJUSFN or $DJUSRE clearly do a countertrend Wave B upcycle that peaks below yesterday 4-13's cycle high. I'll look to enter the trade shortly after the countertrend Wave B upcycle peaks.
Follow my live updates at Twitter! Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.
CRS's Blog Comment: "Joe, I didn't say it last time but I love the blog and the twitter is great, I used to hate having to wait until 6 or 7 at night to see your update.
I have been following you for while, what do you see as the next big move, down I assume? Another technical guy I follow sees 766 near term and then a move to 1100 or so. Where do you come in?"
My response: "Thanks for the kind words CRS. Twitter is a ball, and, is highly useful. It's a great productivity, networking, information, communication, microblogging, etc tool. There's a good reason why Twitter is a huge rapidly growing phenomenon.
Concerning a near term S & P 500 target, the Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle, that probably began late yesterday 4-13, should bottom (in a couple of/few months) well below the 666.79 Wave A cycle low that occurred on March 6, 2009, in the neighborhood of 600 maybe. Ultimately I see the S & P 500 probably hitting 235ish."
The extremely bearish five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at session's end today 4-14-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, points to strength, following early potentially severe weakness on Wednesday.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.38% rise in complacency/-2.38% decline in the wall of worry today 4-14, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -2.01% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -0.37%, which points to likely severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Wednesday 4-15-09.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a super bearish -7.52% versus SPX (S & P 500) on Thursday 4-9, so, yesterday 4-13's and today 4-14's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.47% and +1.21% versus SPX (S & P 500), is misleading, though a very sharp rebound is likely after Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle since late yesterday 4-13 bottoms, possibly early tomorrow 4-15.
SPX's (S & P 500) huge Wave 5 of Wave 5 rollover upcycle since 3-30-09 has now done an up down up down up pattern!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, a huge final Wave 5 spike move appears to have peaked late yesterday 4-13 (Wave 5 of Wave 5 of Wave 5!).
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which appears to have peaked late yesterday 4-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle that began on 3-6-09 was Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
A huge story on Thursday 4-9-09 (forget Wells Fargo) was broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway gap down from 52.61 at the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. WMT created another bearish breakaway upside gap at 51.53 at today 4-14's open.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at +1.21% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it (a humongous 205+ million shares traded today). Not a recommendation. FAZ is at 11.27 after hours.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Follow my live updates at Twitter! Highly recommended. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I'll opine about other subjects.
Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Monday 4-13. GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a likely large Wave 5 down (XAU Wave 4 up move peaked 4-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^xau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, GDX/HUI Wave 4 up move peaked yesterday 4-13, in dramatic rollover mode versus the 4-7 cycle high, NEM Lead Indicator is +0.23% versus the XAU today/on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bullish since 3-18-09, but, turned extremely bearish the past five days, at +0.23% versus the XAU today/on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7, +0.88% on 4-6, +0.02% on 4-3, +1.95% on 4-2, +1.36% on 4-1, -1.62% on 3-31, +0.87% on 3-30, +0.38% on 3-27, +1.54% on 3-26, +1.43% on 3-25, +0.07% on 3-24, +0.00% on 3-23, +3.26% on 3-20, +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18, offset some by the broad market WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.21% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eleven weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.96% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-14, it was -1.90% on 4-13, it was -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
SPX (S & P 500) closed the session in Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle since late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Watch the 825.16 and 811.08 downside gaps tomorrow. If gap filling action occurs tomorrow (likely), then the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 has probably peaked.
If one looks at a non logarithmic chart (which is what one should use) of SPX (S & P 500) one can see that SPX's peaks have rolled over dramatically since mid March, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The Dow Jones Real Estate and Finance Indexes are probably great shorts now (SRS and FAZ rocked today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^djusre&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^djusfn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note the clear inverse Elliott Wave 12345 patterns they have since late yesterday. I'll look to day trade one of them short early tomorrow, if I can get a good entry point.
It would have been risky to day trade short today (I was busy for a good part of the session anyway and couldn't day trade), because, it's almost always better (especially with super volatile ultra ETFs) to wait for the expected action, then enter a trade (short in this case) during a countertrend move, and, it still hasn't been established that the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 (Wave B up of intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09) has peaked. However, after seeing today's action and the indicators, I might day trade $DJUSFN or $DJUSRE ultra short early tomorrow via FAZ or SRS.
For example, I'll look to trade FAZ or SRS overnight once $DJUSFN or $DJUSRE clearly do a countertrend Wave B upcycle that peaks below yesterday 4-13's cycle high. I'll look to enter the trade shortly after the countertrend Wave B upcycle peaks.
Follow my live updates at Twitter! Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.
CRS's Blog Comment: "Joe, I didn't say it last time but I love the blog and the twitter is great, I used to hate having to wait until 6 or 7 at night to see your update.
I have been following you for while, what do you see as the next big move, down I assume? Another technical guy I follow sees 766 near term and then a move to 1100 or so. Where do you come in?"
My response: "Thanks for the kind words CRS. Twitter is a ball, and, is highly useful. It's a great productivity, networking, information, communication, microblogging, etc tool. There's a good reason why Twitter is a huge rapidly growing phenomenon.
Concerning a near term S & P 500 target, the Wave C Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle, that probably began late yesterday 4-13, should bottom (in a couple of/few months) well below the 666.79 Wave A cycle low that occurred on March 6, 2009, in the neighborhood of 600 maybe. Ultimately I see the S & P 500 probably hitting 235ish."
The extremely bearish five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator at session's end today 4-14-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, points to strength, following early potentially severe weakness on Wednesday.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.38% rise in complacency/-2.38% decline in the wall of worry today 4-14, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -2.01% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -0.37%, which points to likely severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Wednesday 4-15-09.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a super bearish -7.52% versus SPX (S & P 500) on Thursday 4-9, so, yesterday 4-13's and today 4-14's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.47% and +1.21% versus SPX (S & P 500), is misleading, though a very sharp rebound is likely after Wave 5 down of the inverse Elliott Wave 12345 downcycle since late yesterday 4-13 bottoms, possibly early tomorrow 4-15.
SPX's (S & P 500) huge Wave 5 of Wave 5 rollover upcycle since 3-30-09 has now done an up down up down up pattern!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, a huge final Wave 5 spike move appears to have peaked late yesterday 4-13 (Wave 5 of Wave 5 of Wave 5!).
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which appears to have peaked late yesterday 4-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle that began on 3-6-09 was Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
A huge story on Thursday 4-9-09 (forget Wells Fargo) was broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway gap down from 52.61 at the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. WMT created another bearish breakaway upside gap at 51.53 at today 4-14's open.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at +1.21% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it (a humongous 205+ million shares traded today). Not a recommendation. FAZ is at 11.27 after hours.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Follow my live updates at Twitter! Highly recommended. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I'll opine about other subjects.
Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Monday 4-13. GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a likely large Wave 5 down (XAU Wave 4 up move peaked 4-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^xau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, GDX/HUI Wave 4 up move peaked yesterday 4-13, in dramatic rollover mode versus the 4-7 cycle high, NEM Lead Indicator is +0.23% versus the XAU today/on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bullish since 3-18-09, but, turned extremely bearish the past five days, at +0.23% versus the XAU today/on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7, +0.88% on 4-6, +0.02% on 4-3, +1.95% on 4-2, +1.36% on 4-1, -1.62% on 3-31, +0.87% on 3-30, +0.38% on 3-27, +1.54% on 3-26, +1.43% on 3-25, +0.07% on 3-24, +0.00% on 3-23, +3.26% on 3-20, +1.39% on 3-19, +0.89% on 3-18, offset some by the broad market WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.21% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04, 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eleven weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.96% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-14, it was -1.90% on 4-13, it was -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, SRS, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:42 PM
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