The S & P 500 (SPX) Upcycle Since Just After 4-15's Open Appears To Have Peaked
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Upcycle since just after 4-15's open appears to have peaked today/Friday 4-17, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Note that SPX (S & P 500) put in a bearish double top late in the session, and, note that the second double top cycle high has a large bearish spike on a bearish dark candle, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The S & P 500 (SPX) Upcycle's (since just after 4-15's open) peaks rolled over, put in a bearish double top, probably peaked shortly before session's end today 4-17, and, put in a large bearish spike on a bearish dark candle at the likely final cycle high.
It obviously remains to be seen whether today 4-17's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) cycle high is the end of the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) since 3-6-09, but, it definitely might be.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a very sharp +4.64% rise in complacency/-4.64% decline in the wall of worry today 4-17, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +0.50% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -5.14%, which points to likely severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Monday 4-20-09.
Broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bearish -1.64% versus the S & P 500 today/4-17. Severe weakness is likely early on Monday.
Please see my Twitter site for the "play by play." Don't be shy about joining, it's quick and easy to join, and, Twitter is very fun and highly useful, or, you can simply follow my Twitter site.
Interesting, the savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders expected strength this week, since they traded modestly net long in the latest report dated 4-14-09, see 2/3 of the way down at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.
One way to check for a possible market surprise, on a day like today was, or for whatever timeframe one's trading, is to check the S & P 500 (SPX) wall of worry, by comparing SPX to the SPX Volatility Index VIX, see today's comparison at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. VIX works similarly to a lead indicator.
What one needs to do is to compare SPX to VIX, by simply adding them, as I do every day on this Blog after the close. A significant/substantially positive number points to strength (significant/substantial rise in fear) and a significant/substantially negative number points to weakness (significant/substantial rise in complacency), BUT, ANY indicator/tool is secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and, gaps.
For an unusually large number, as regular readers know, greater than or equal to + or - 6%, only for a SINGLE SESSION, an unusually large rise in fear points to significant/potentially severe weakness in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough), and, an unusually large rise in complacency points to significant/potentially substantial strength in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough).
The collapse in the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (since 3-6-09 in this case), and, vice versa.
When the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaks, it'll probably be obvious. There will probably be a very large -3% to -5%+ decline in a session or two, and, maybe a large bearish breakaway gap will occur and/or a large bearish spike on the daily candle. Also, once downside gap filling action begins (825.16, 811.08, 768.54, etc), then, it's likely that SPX (S & P 500) has peaked.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at -1.64% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.00% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-17, it was -1.62% on 4-16, it was +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Based on the S & P 500 (SPX) intraday chart's cycles, Elliott Wave count, and, the indicators, severe weakness is likely early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) is in a Wave 5 downcycle of the downcycle that began very late on Monday 4-13 (down up down up down pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which should soon peak/might have late today 4-17-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle that began on 3-6-09 is Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.
Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Thursday 4-16, GDX's downside gap at 33.04 got filled as expected yesterday, NEM filled 40.14 also. GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a likely large Wave 5 down (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -0.93% versus the XAU today/on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish the past eight sessions, at -0.93% versus the XAU today/on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eleven weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Note that SPX (S & P 500) put in a bearish double top late in the session, and, note that the second double top cycle high has a large bearish spike on a bearish dark candle, see the one day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The S & P 500 (SPX) Upcycle's (since just after 4-15's open) peaks rolled over, put in a bearish double top, probably peaked shortly before session's end today 4-17, and, put in a large bearish spike on a bearish dark candle at the likely final cycle high.
It obviously remains to be seen whether today 4-17's S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) cycle high is the end of the countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle (Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09) since 3-6-09, but, it definitely might be.
SPX (S & P 500) experienced a very sharp +4.64% rise in complacency/-4.64% decline in the wall of worry today 4-17, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +0.50% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -5.14%, which points to likely severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness early on Monday 4-20-09.
Broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator closed at a very bearish -1.64% versus the S & P 500 today/4-17. Severe weakness is likely early on Monday.
Please see my Twitter site for the "play by play." Don't be shy about joining, it's quick and easy to join, and, Twitter is very fun and highly useful, or, you can simply follow my Twitter site.
Interesting, the savvy non contrarian S & P 500 (SPX) Commercial Traders expected strength this week, since they traded modestly net long in the latest report dated 4-14-09, see 2/3 of the way down at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm.
One way to check for a possible market surprise, on a day like today was, or for whatever timeframe one's trading, is to check the S & P 500 (SPX) wall of worry, by comparing SPX to the SPX Volatility Index VIX, see today's comparison at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix. VIX works similarly to a lead indicator.
What one needs to do is to compare SPX to VIX, by simply adding them, as I do every day on this Blog after the close. A significant/substantially positive number points to strength (significant/substantial rise in fear) and a significant/substantially negative number points to weakness (significant/substantial rise in complacency), BUT, ANY indicator/tool is secondary to cycles, Elliott Wave patterns, and, gaps.
For an unusually large number, as regular readers know, greater than or equal to + or - 6%, only for a SINGLE SESSION, an unusually large rise in fear points to significant/potentially severe weakness in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough), and, an unusually large rise in complacency points to significant/potentially substantial strength in the next session (maybe the same session if it occurs early enough).
The collapse in the S & P 500 wall of worry (SPX versus VIX) recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=^vix, points to a collapse in SPX soon. Note that when VIX substantially outperforms SPX for a while, substantial SPX strength tends to occur shortly thereafter (since 3-6-09 in this case), and, vice versa.
When the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 peaks, it'll probably be obvious. There will probably be a very large -3% to -5%+ decline in a session or two, and, maybe a large bearish breakaway gap will occur and/or a large bearish spike on the daily candle. Also, once downside gap filling action begins (825.16, 811.08, 768.54, etc), then, it's likely that SPX (S & P 500) has peaked.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish since 3-6-09 (countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle began), at -1.64% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 4-17, -2.54% on 4-16, -0.92% on 4-15, +1.21% on 4-14, +1.47% on 4-13, -7.52% on 4-9, -0.76% on 4-8, +0.44% on 4-7, +0.14% on 4-6, -0.67% on 4-3, -1.32% on 4-2, -0.28% on 4-1, -0.65% on 3-31, +1.94% on 3-30, +1.67% on 3-27, -0.24% on 3-26, +0.22% on 3-25, +1.23% on 3-24, -3.27% on 3-23, +1.26% on 3-20, +0.33% on 3-19, -1.21% on 3-18, -0.75% on 3-17, -0.44% on 3-16, -0.26% on 3-13, -0.95% on 3-12, -2.73% on 3-11, -3.93% on 3-10, -1.86% on 3-9, -1.81% on 3-6.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.00% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 4-17, it was -1.62% on 4-16, it was +0.95% on 4-15, +0.96% on 4-14, -1.90% on 4-13, -0.66% on 4-9, -0.47% on 4-8, +0.61% on 4-7, +1.71% on 4-6, -0.57% on 4-3, -2.70% on 4-2, -0.27% on 4-1, -1.04% on 3-31, +1.96% on 3-30, +1.27% on 3-27, +0.70% on 3-26, +0.04% on 3-25, +0.82% on 3-24, -0.15% on 3-23, +0.13% on 3-20, -3.32% on 3-19, -0.46% on 3-18, +0.00% on 3-17, -0.58% on 3-16, +1.09% on 3-13, -0.78% on 3-12, -1.90% on 3-11, -1.22% on 3-10, +0.66% on 3-9, +1.10% on 3-6, -0.63% on 3-5, -2.98% on 3-4, -0.38% on 3-3, +2.68% on 3-2.
Note that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) put in a countertrend Wave B Minor Intermediate Term Cycle High in very early April, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Based on the S & P 500 (SPX) intraday chart's cycles, Elliott Wave count, and, the indicators, severe weakness is likely early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^spx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Also, broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) is in a Wave 5 downcycle of the downcycle that began very late on Monday 4-13 (down up down up down pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The S & P 500 (SPX) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle since 3-6-09 Elliott Wave count is: A Wave 1 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-9, a Wave 3 cycle high/red spike occurred on 3-16, then, a deceptive huge Wave 5 Elliott Wave up down up down up rollover upcycle began on 3-17-09, which should soon peak/might have late today 4-17-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B Monthly Upcycle that began on 3-6-09 is Wave B up of the Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The S & P 500's (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) huge spike move/monster rollover Wave 5 upcycle that began 3-30-09 jives with important peaking action, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 51.53, 52.61, 53.43, 53.80 and 55.54, and, filled the downside gap at 52.82.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 712.87 (filled 3-10-09), 735.09 (filled 3-12-09), 752.83 (filled 3-13-09), 826.84 (filled 3-26-09), 815.94 (filled 4-2-09), 832.86 (filled 4-2-09), has upside gaps at 835.48 (filled), 842.50 (filled), 858.73 (filled), 869.89 (filled), and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has downside gaps at 825.16, 811.08, 768.54, and, one at 676.53.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) is a great opportunity to probably make a lot of money now/soon (probably for the next few weeks/months), which is why so many are trading it. Not a recommendation.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Follow my live updates at Twitter!, at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. Highly recommended. I'm having fun and networking, in addition to microblogging my Trade the Cycles work/system and opining about a variety of subjects. I'm tradethecycles at Twitter. Joining is easy, then you follow me by clicking follow after doing a search for tradethecycles. Or, you can simply follow my Twitter web site at http://twitter.com/tradethecycles. I just started using Twitter recently. I'm going to try to make timely live updates at Twitter and make it a real time extension of this Blog. Also, I opine about other subjects.
Fellow gold/silver bugs, no change in the assessment from Thursday 4-16, GDX's downside gap at 33.04 got filled as expected yesterday, NEM filled 40.14 also. GDX/HUI/XAU are doing a likely large Wave 5 down (the NEM Lead Indicator closed at -0.93% versus the XAU today/on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7) of Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern), of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see GDX's daily chart.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 1 Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008 peaked on 3-26-09 for the XAU, and, peaked in very early April for GDX/HUI, see the XAU at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. For GDX/HUI, see their daily chart.
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave A down (Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern) of the Wave 2 Intermediate Term Downcycle since 3-26-09 for the XAU (very early April for GDX/HUI), so, there should be a good opportunity to take profits (or exit if you're under water) once a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (or spectacular final Wave 5 upcycle) occurs in the near future/some time in the next few weeks.
The NEM Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish the past eight sessions, at -0.93% versus the XAU today/on 4-17, -0.89% on 4-16, -0.03% on 4-15, +0.23% on 4-14, -0.88% on 4-13, +0.18% on 4-9, -1.21% on 4-8, -0.96% on 4-7.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 33.04 (filled), 29.67, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. GDX has a very bullish breakaway downside gap at 35.07 (filled). GDX has a very bearish breakaway upside gap at 34.87, and, NEM has one at 43.89. NEM has downside gaps at 36.66 (filled 3-17) and TBD, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 40.14 (filled) from 3-19's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal eleven weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a Cyclical Bear Market from/since 2004 for example (has been in a multi decade Secular Bear Market also), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, SRS, TAN, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:06 PM
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