SPX's (S & P 500) Huge Wave A Down of the Short Term Wave C Downcycle Since 11-5-08 Will Probably Bottom Tomorrow
SPX's (S & P 500) huge Wave A down of the short term Wave C downcycle since yesterday 11-5-08 will probably bottom tomorrow, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The SPX Volatility Index VIX rose an unusually large +16.72% today versus an SPX plunge of -5.03%, which was an unusually large +11.69% rise in the SPX wall of worry/spike in fear that points to significant and potentially severe SPX/market weakness early tomorrow 11-7-08.
A short term Wave C downcycle began yesterday 11-5-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, in which SPX (S & P 500) should take out it's cycle low at 839.80 that occurred on 10-10-08, confirming that SPX and most other indexes/sectors remain in a Cyclical Bear Market.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish
+3.85% versus SPX today/on 11-6 (extremely bullish is a very short term bearish indication), was a very bullish +1.71% on 11-5. A substantial rebound is likely tomorrow at some point, after likely early weakness.
Early on tomorrow I'll be looking to day trade ultra short (DUG/SDS/QID/TWM), or, the gold stock sector long, if GDX (Gold Miners ETF) doesn't fill it's downside gap at 20.95 (an important discussion begins two paragraphs down), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, in which case it'll obviously be a bullish breakaway gap, and, later on I might day trade the XOI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Exoi) ultra long.
Today I did a DUG day trade and made a little over 10 cents per share/$100+ for each 1000 shares traded (my entry point was poor, but, I made a significant amount of $). Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) APPEARS to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low late today 11-6 (note the large bullish inverse spike shortly before session's end), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, completing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early yesterday 11-5-08, which assumes that GDX/HUI/XAU recently finally bottomed and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
Also, GDX has a relatively large bullish inverse spike on today 11-6's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Tomorrow might shed some light on whether the gold stock sector has finally bottomed, though, waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense.
GDX filled it's downside gap at 21.01 late today, but, 20.95 is potentially a bullish breakaway gap. 18.69 is another downside gap. The one day intraday NEM Lead Indicator should turn clearly bullish tomorrow, if GDX/HUI/XAU have entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. If so, I'll look to trade AEM or GDX long early tomorrow.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator the past two weeks+ is super bearish (maybe that's actually a very bullish sign and the sector might have finally bottomed), at a slightly bullish +0.13% versus the XAU today/on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, -0.85% on 10-23.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX and the XOI). The lead indicators jive with severe weakness (began yesterday), for most sectors/indexes.
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (which is typically very short term bearish, +3.85% versus SPX today/on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, +0.13% versus the XAU today/on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, +0.44% versus the XOI today/on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have bottomed, doubtful), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The SPX Volatility Index VIX rose an unusually large +16.72% today versus an SPX plunge of -5.03%, which was an unusually large +11.69% rise in the SPX wall of worry/spike in fear that points to significant and potentially severe SPX/market weakness early tomorrow 11-7-08.
A short term Wave C downcycle began yesterday 11-5-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, in which SPX (S & P 500) should take out it's cycle low at 839.80 that occurred on 10-10-08, confirming that SPX and most other indexes/sectors remain in a Cyclical Bear Market.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish
+3.85% versus SPX today/on 11-6 (extremely bullish is a very short term bearish indication), was a very bullish +1.71% on 11-5. A substantial rebound is likely tomorrow at some point, after likely early weakness.
Early on tomorrow I'll be looking to day trade ultra short (DUG/SDS/QID/TWM), or, the gold stock sector long, if GDX (Gold Miners ETF) doesn't fill it's downside gap at 20.95 (an important discussion begins two paragraphs down), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, in which case it'll obviously be a bullish breakaway gap, and, later on I might day trade the XOI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Exoi) ultra long.
Today I did a DUG day trade and made a little over 10 cents per share/$100+ for each 1000 shares traded (my entry point was poor, but, I made a significant amount of $). Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) APPEARS to have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low late today 11-6 (note the large bullish inverse spike shortly before session's end), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, completing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early yesterday 11-5-08, which assumes that GDX/HUI/XAU recently finally bottomed and entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
Also, GDX has a relatively large bullish inverse spike on today 11-6's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Tomorrow might shed some light on whether the gold stock sector has finally bottomed, though, waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense.
GDX filled it's downside gap at 21.01 late today, but, 20.95 is potentially a bullish breakaway gap. 18.69 is another downside gap. The one day intraday NEM Lead Indicator should turn clearly bullish tomorrow, if GDX/HUI/XAU have entered a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. If so, I'll look to trade AEM or GDX long early tomorrow.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator the past two weeks+ is super bearish (maybe that's actually a very bullish sign and the sector might have finally bottomed), at a slightly bullish +0.13% versus the XAU today/on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, -0.85% on 10-23.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX and the XOI). The lead indicators jive with severe weakness (began yesterday), for most sectors/indexes.
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish (which is typically very short term bearish, +3.85% versus SPX today/on 11-6, +1.71% on 11-5, -3.79% on 11-4, +0.54% on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, +0.13% versus the XAU today/on 11-6, -0.62% on 11-5, -4.40% on 11-4, -0.25% on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, +0.44% versus the XOI today/on 11-6, -0.23% on 11-5, -2.49% on 11-4, +2.41% on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have bottomed, doubtful), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:42 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home