The SPX (S & P 500) Countertrend Wave B Type Upcycle Continues To Roll Over
The SPX (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B type upcycle (since 10-28-08) continues to roll over, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX and most indexes/sectors probably remain in a Cyclical Bear Market.
A few possible exceptions are the gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) and the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut), that appear to (RUT is more doubtful) have bottomed, but, have yet to hit a 5% major buy signal.
RUT's upcycle since 10-28-08 (potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low) is a very vertical spike move, that looks like a countertrend Wave B type upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, so, I won't be surprised if RUT remains in a Cyclical Bear Market.
The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.
I'm going to look to trade the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) ultra long via DIG tomorrow, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Today I did a 3 minute DIG day trade and netted a little over 4 cents per share.
The oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.41% versus the XOI today/on 11-3, and, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.54% versus the S & P 500 today/on 11-3. I'll obviously look to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG again tomorrow.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX and the XOI).
The lead indicators jive with expected severe weakness in the near future, for most sectors/indexes.
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish (+0.54% versus SPX today/on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, -0.25% versus the XAU today/on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is super bearish (+2.41% versus the XOI today/on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
I'm looking to trade the XOI ultra short via DUG this week, once the current countertrend action clearly breaks down and does a sharp Wave A down (of Wave C) type plunge.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) still probably need to do Wave 5 of the gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.
The plunge early on 10-30 was probably Wave A down of Wave 4 of Wave 1, not the entire Wave 4 of Wave 1 as previously discussed. So, I might look to trade AEM or GDX long on Tuesday after likely early weakness. GDX/HUI/XAU appear to have ended 11-3's session in Wave C of Wave 4 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.
The intraday chart Elliott Wave count above jives with the daily chart Elliott Wave count, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI, since 10-24's short term Wave 1 upcycle began (potential start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, if not, then the current upcycle is a monster short term Wave B), has done an up down up, and, is currently in Wave 4 down of Wave 1 (or a Wave B).
It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur this week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after 10-30's open. Wave A of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into 10-30's session, Wave B of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 peaked late today 11-3 in rollover mode, Wave C of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 should bottom early Tuesday, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak this week, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity this week. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity this week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have bottomed, doubtful), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
A few possible exceptions are the gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) and the Russell 2000 (RUT, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut), that appear to (RUT is more doubtful) have bottomed, but, have yet to hit a 5% major buy signal.
RUT's upcycle since 10-28-08 (potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low) is a very vertical spike move, that looks like a countertrend Wave B type upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, so, I won't be surprised if RUT remains in a Cyclical Bear Market.
The gold stock sector (GDX/HUI/XAU) is one sector that clearly APPEARS to have bottomed, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a nice very bullish triple bottom. Reliable lead indicator NEM recently put in a nice bullish double bottom at 21.40/21.47, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Waiting for a 5% major buy signal makes a lot of sense obviously.
I'm going to look to trade the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) ultra long via DIG tomorrow, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Today I did a 3 minute DIG day trade and netted a little over 4 cents per share.
The oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.41% versus the XOI today/on 11-3, and, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.54% versus the S & P 500 today/on 11-3. I'll obviously look to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG again tomorrow.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX and the XOI).
The lead indicators jive with expected severe weakness in the near future, for most sectors/indexes.
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish (+0.54% versus SPX today/on 11-3, +0.40% on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, -0.25% versus the XAU today/on 11-3, -1.11% on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is super bearish (+2.41% versus the XOI today/on 11-3, -3.01% on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom.
I'm looking to trade the XOI ultra short via DUG this week, once the current countertrend action clearly breaks down and does a sharp Wave A down (of Wave C) type plunge.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) still probably need to do Wave 5 of the gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.
The plunge early on 10-30 was probably Wave A down of Wave 4 of Wave 1, not the entire Wave 4 of Wave 1 as previously discussed. So, I might look to trade AEM or GDX long on Tuesday after likely early weakness. GDX/HUI/XAU appear to have ended 11-3's session in Wave C of Wave 4 of the short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c.
The intraday chart Elliott Wave count above jives with the daily chart Elliott Wave count, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI, since 10-24's short term Wave 1 upcycle began (potential start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, if not, then the current upcycle is a monster short term Wave B), has done an up down up, and, is currently in Wave 4 down of Wave 1 (or a Wave B).
It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur this week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after 10-30's open. Wave A of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into 10-30's session, Wave B of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 peaked late today 11-3 in rollover mode, Wave C of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 should bottom early Tuesday, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak this week, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity this week. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity this week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have bottomed, doubtful), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:01 PM
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