NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU's Short Term Wave B Of Wave C Has Probably Peaked
NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU's short term Wave B of Wave C (began on 12-18-07) has probably peaked, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
NDX/XAU both began very short term downcycles late yesterday (HUI early today), which is a very short term Wave A down type move. In the next session or two, when NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU do a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle, that obviously should bottom below yesterday's NDX/XAU cycle highs (today's cycle high for HUI), I'll look to short NDX via the Ultra Short NDX ETF QID, and, I'll look to short HUI/XAU via shorting GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.
The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators are very bearish short term, as the data below reveals. The WMT Lead Indicator was bearish for most of today's session, but turned bullish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. It looks like a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle will begin at some point early tomorrow for NDX/HUI/XAU.
The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-27, was a bearish -0.82% on 12-26, +0.29% on 12-24, -0.92% on 12-21, -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.15% versus the XAU today/on 12-27, was -1.12% on 12-26, -1.10% on 12-24, -1.08% on 12-21, -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.
NDX's important recent cycle highs/lows are labeled at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and, the XAU's are at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note that today's candles are dark, indicating a close below the open, which often occurs when a downcycle has begun.
NEM and NDX downside gap filling action began today, which is probably a sign that a short term downcycle has begun. The beauty of gaps is that, usually/reliably, important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.
NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) intermediate term cycle low target range of 1820-1840 was very straightforward/easy to derive, see the next paragraph.
NDX's (NASDAQ 100) short term Wave C of Wave C/final intermediate term cycle (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since late October) low target range is 1820-1840 (1980.18 was the Wave A cycle low on 11-12-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), shortly after filling the final downside gap at 1846.09. NDX’s Wave A of Wave C of Wave C should/might bottom at 1940-2020. NDX (NASDAQ 100) has downside gaps at 2111.77 (filled 12-27/today), 2069.68, 2031.00, 1989.36, 1982.16, 1960.20, 1899.24, 1846.09.
I have more work to do for HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX. I'll try to post that in the next day or two. NEM has downside gaps at 48.45 (filled 12-27/today), 47.39, 42.29, 41.52. So, NEM may fill all of those gaps, but I need to look at all (HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX) and derive good target(s). A few weeks ago, with the big day trade I did, I had to use NEM, because, that was the only available downside gap.
If you doubt that HUI/XAU/gold are in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 11-7-07, consider the Euro gold's bearish long term double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, consider the fact that the US Dollar's Cyclical Bear Market since late 2005 probably bottomed in November 2007 (entered a Cyclical Bull Market), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/major-deflationary-factors-gold-wave-2.html, as well as the deflationary major economic/stock market downcycle.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
NDX/XAU both began very short term downcycles late yesterday (HUI early today), which is a very short term Wave A down type move. In the next session or two, when NDX (NASDAQ 100)/HUI/XAU do a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle, that obviously should bottom below yesterday's NDX/XAU cycle highs (today's cycle high for HUI), I'll look to short NDX via the Ultra Short NDX ETF QID, and, I'll look to short HUI/XAU via shorting GDX, the Gold Miners ETF.
The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators are very bearish short term, as the data below reveals. The WMT Lead Indicator was bearish for most of today's session, but turned bullish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. It looks like a very short term countertrend Wave B rebound/upcycle will begin at some point early tomorrow for NDX/HUI/XAU.
The WMT Lead Indicator was +0.17% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-27, was a bearish -0.82% on 12-26, +0.29% on 12-24, -0.92% on 12-21, -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.15% versus the XAU today/on 12-27, was -1.12% on 12-26, -1.10% on 12-24, -1.08% on 12-21, -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.
NDX's important recent cycle highs/lows are labeled at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, and, the XAU's are at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. Note that today's candles are dark, indicating a close below the open, which often occurs when a downcycle has begun.
NEM and NDX downside gap filling action began today, which is probably a sign that a short term downcycle has begun. The beauty of gaps is that, usually/reliably, important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action is completed.
NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) intermediate term cycle low target range of 1820-1840 was very straightforward/easy to derive, see the next paragraph.
NDX's (NASDAQ 100) short term Wave C of Wave C/final intermediate term cycle (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since late October) low target range is 1820-1840 (1980.18 was the Wave A cycle low on 11-12-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), shortly after filling the final downside gap at 1846.09. NDX’s Wave A of Wave C of Wave C should/might bottom at 1940-2020. NDX (NASDAQ 100) has downside gaps at 2111.77 (filled 12-27/today), 2069.68, 2031.00, 1989.36, 1982.16, 1960.20, 1899.24, 1846.09.
I have more work to do for HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX. I'll try to post that in the next day or two. NEM has downside gaps at 48.45 (filled 12-27/today), 47.39, 42.29, 41.52. So, NEM may fill all of those gaps, but I need to look at all (HUI/XAU/NEM/GDX) and derive good target(s). A few weeks ago, with the big day trade I did, I had to use NEM, because, that was the only available downside gap.
If you doubt that HUI/XAU/gold are in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 11-7-07, consider the Euro gold's bearish long term double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, consider the fact that the US Dollar's Cyclical Bear Market since late 2005 probably bottomed in November 2007 (entered a Cyclical Bull Market), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/major-deflationary-factors-gold-wave-2.html, as well as the deflationary major economic/stock market downcycle.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:43 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home