Based On The Intraday Elliott Wave Count And The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators I Stayed In Cash
Based on the intraday Elliott Wave count and the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators I stayed in cash today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Both NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) and WMT (Walmart, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) look like they need to do an intraday Wave C downcycle tomorrow, and, should take out today's cycle lows.
This jives with today's modestly bearish NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, at -0.26% versus the XAU today/on 12-19 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.19% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-19 for the WMT Lead Indicator.
The fact that both lead indicators became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, jives with the expected intraday Wave C decline early tomorrow. One can use the intraday and daily lead indicator charts to see if they jive with the Elliott Wave count.
I'm looking to trade NEM's short term Wave 1 upcycle that probably began yesterday at 46.25, and, I'm looking to trade WMT's short term Wave 5 upcycle that probably began yesterday at 46.87, as discussed yesterday, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/reliable-lead-indicators-nem-and-wmt.html.
Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT appear to have bottomed yesterday 12-18, note the bullish large inverse spikes on the candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT are probably leading to the upside, since the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators turned very bullish the prior two days:
NEM Lead Indicator = +0.52% versus the XAU on 12-18 and +1.47% on 12-17, and, the WMT Lead Indicator = +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-18 and +1.92% on 12-17 (At -0.26% versus the XAU today/on 12-19 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.19% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-19 for the WMT Lead Indicator).
NEM probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 46.25 yesterday/12-18 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), which is a bullish double bottom with 12-17's cycle low at 46.28. It's prudent to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 multi day upcycle/2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading NEM aggressively long.
NEM put in a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 37.91 in June 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, NEM is a gold/metals stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. They might have put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows yesterday.
Gold is in Wave C of Wave C since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle high on 11-7-07, see GLD ETF at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld. Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside. I'm looking to short gold via shorting the GLD ETF.
NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) is in the process of putting in a Wave A of Wave C cycle low (probably did yesterday), for the intermediate term downcycle since late October. Wave A bottomed in early November. The countertrend Wave B peaked in early/mid December, at the time of Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision (note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern), so, Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle (since late October) has been in effect since Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision. Some time in the next week or so there should be a good opportunity to short NDX/catch Wave C of Wave C via the Ultra Short ETF QID, as NDX's Wave B of Wave C peaks.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Both NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) and WMT (Walmart, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) look like they need to do an intraday Wave C downcycle tomorrow, and, should take out today's cycle lows.
This jives with today's modestly bearish NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, at -0.26% versus the XAU today/on 12-19 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.19% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-19 for the WMT Lead Indicator.
The fact that both lead indicators became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, jives with the expected intraday Wave C decline early tomorrow. One can use the intraday and daily lead indicator charts to see if they jive with the Elliott Wave count.
I'm looking to trade NEM's short term Wave 1 upcycle that probably began yesterday at 46.25, and, I'm looking to trade WMT's short term Wave 5 upcycle that probably began yesterday at 46.87, as discussed yesterday, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/reliable-lead-indicators-nem-and-wmt.html.
Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT appear to have bottomed yesterday 12-18, note the bullish large inverse spikes on the candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT are probably leading to the upside, since the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators turned very bullish the prior two days:
NEM Lead Indicator = +0.52% versus the XAU on 12-18 and +1.47% on 12-17, and, the WMT Lead Indicator = +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-18 and +1.92% on 12-17 (At -0.26% versus the XAU today/on 12-19 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.19% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 12-19 for the WMT Lead Indicator).
NEM probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 46.25 yesterday/12-18 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), which is a bullish double bottom with 12-17's cycle low at 46.28. It's prudent to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 multi day upcycle/2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading NEM aggressively long.
NEM put in a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 37.91 in June 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, NEM is a gold/metals stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. They might have put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows yesterday.
Gold is in Wave C of Wave C since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle high on 11-7-07, see GLD ETF at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld. Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside. I'm looking to short gold via shorting the GLD ETF.
NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) is in the process of putting in a Wave A of Wave C cycle low (probably did yesterday), for the intermediate term downcycle since late October. Wave A bottomed in early November. The countertrend Wave B peaked in early/mid December, at the time of Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision (note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern), so, Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle (since late October) has been in effect since Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision. Some time in the next week or so there should be a good opportunity to short NDX/catch Wave C of Wave C via the Ultra Short ETF QID, as NDX's Wave B of Wave C peaks.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:22 PM
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