Gold's Primary Trendline And Technical Picture Is Much Easier To See In Other Currencies
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 and technical picture is much easier to see in other strong currencies like the Euro and the Australian Dollar (than the US Dollar), see http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html.
The primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 doesn't include any cycle lows from 2006/2007, which is plainly obvious by looking at the Euro and the Australian Dollar gold charts. Also, note the bearish double tops in November 2007/May 2006, for gold in Euro and Australian Dollar terms.
Gold went parabolic from February 2004 to May 11, 2006 (+78% rise in US Dollar terms, http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html) and did so again from 8-16-07 to 11-7-07 (+30% rise in US Dollar terms), when a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at $848 in US Dollar terms. Gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaked in rollover mode (in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms) versus the 5-11-06 cycle high, along with HUI/XAU.
The parabolic rise from May 2004 to May 11, 2006 brought gold way above it's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html). The primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 doesn't include any cycle lows from 2006/2007.
Gold's bearish picture is much easier to see in the charts in Euro and Australian Dollar terms (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), since gold in those stronger currencies put in a countertrend Wave B bearish double top in early November with the 5-11-06 cycle highs, versus gold in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms peaking in rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 is at $500ish in US Dollar terms right now, so, gold should bottom at $490 to $520 in the next year or so.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 doesn't include any cycle lows from 2006/2007, which is plainly obvious by looking at the Euro and the Australian Dollar gold charts. Also, note the bearish double tops in November 2007/May 2006, for gold in Euro and Australian Dollar terms.
Gold went parabolic from February 2004 to May 11, 2006 (+78% rise in US Dollar terms, http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html) and did so again from 8-16-07 to 11-7-07 (+30% rise in US Dollar terms), when a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at $848 in US Dollar terms. Gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaked in rollover mode (in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms) versus the 5-11-06 cycle high, along with HUI/XAU.
The parabolic rise from May 2004 to May 11, 2006 brought gold way above it's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html). The primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 doesn't include any cycle lows from 2006/2007.
Gold's bearish picture is much easier to see in the charts in Euro and Australian Dollar terms (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), since gold in those stronger currencies put in a countertrend Wave B bearish double top in early November with the 5-11-06 cycle highs, versus gold in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms peaking in rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.
Gold's primary Secular Bull Market multi year trendline since April 2001 is at $500ish in US Dollar terms right now, so, gold should bottom at $490 to $520 in the next year or so.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:49 AM
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