.......Gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data
The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data remains bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. After going massively short in recent months (they also adeptly traded significant long positions on a short term basis in recent months) the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders have taken substantial profits on their massive short position in recent weeks.
But, they have done little trading on the long side recently, and, have begun to liquidate their long position in recent weeks, with the latest data (five day period ending 12-4-07) revealing that they liquidated -13,878 long gold futures and options contracts.
The gold COT data in recent weeks revealed that the savvy gold Commercial Traders have taken substantial profits on their massive short position, but, they are still big picture bearish. They have 2.4 short gold futures and options contracts for every long gold contract.
Some of that huge short position is hedging, but, the reason they are able to maintain/afford such a large net short postion, even when gold was in a strong uptrend, is that they are very good traders.
Gold's Elliott Wave count (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) is as follows:
Since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $848 (83.63 for GLD) in early November 2007, GLD (gold ETF) did a short term Wave A downcycle to 76.11, GLD did a short term Wave B upcycle to 82.25, did a short term Wave A of Wave C to 76.98, has put in a short term Wave B of Wave C bearish triple top at 79.60ish the past week, so, GLD appears to be in a Wave C of Wave C downcycle, in which GLD should bottom at 72ish, give or take a point or two. This jives with HUI's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) Wave C of Wave C Elliott Wave count and downtrend since 11-7-07.
Since gold tends to lag gold stocks (HUI/XAU) at very important cycle highs gold may take out the cycle high at $848 in the next few months, but, if it does, it'll be rollover type action that would be risky to trade aggressively long. An example of gold lagging HUI/XAU was when HUI hit a Wave 3 long term cycle high on 12-2-03, the XAU hit a Wave 3 long term cycle high on 1-6-04, and, gold did so in April 2004, lagging HUI by four months and the XAU by three months.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
But, they have done little trading on the long side recently, and, have begun to liquidate their long position in recent weeks, with the latest data (five day period ending 12-4-07) revealing that they liquidated -13,878 long gold futures and options contracts.
The gold COT data in recent weeks revealed that the savvy gold Commercial Traders have taken substantial profits on their massive short position, but, they are still big picture bearish. They have 2.4 short gold futures and options contracts for every long gold contract.
Some of that huge short position is hedging, but, the reason they are able to maintain/afford such a large net short postion, even when gold was in a strong uptrend, is that they are very good traders.
Gold's Elliott Wave count (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) is as follows:
Since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $848 (83.63 for GLD) in early November 2007, GLD (gold ETF) did a short term Wave A downcycle to 76.11, GLD did a short term Wave B upcycle to 82.25, did a short term Wave A of Wave C to 76.98, has put in a short term Wave B of Wave C bearish triple top at 79.60ish the past week, so, GLD appears to be in a Wave C of Wave C downcycle, in which GLD should bottom at 72ish, give or take a point or two. This jives with HUI's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) Wave C of Wave C Elliott Wave count and downtrend since 11-7-07.
Since gold tends to lag gold stocks (HUI/XAU) at very important cycle highs gold may take out the cycle high at $848 in the next few months, but, if it does, it'll be rollover type action that would be risky to trade aggressively long. An example of gold lagging HUI/XAU was when HUI hit a Wave 3 long term cycle high on 12-2-03, the XAU hit a Wave 3 long term cycle high on 1-6-04, and, gold did so in April 2004, lagging HUI by four months and the XAU by three months.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:44 AM
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