I Might Be Going Short SPX (S & P 500) And HUI Tomorrow
I might be going short SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and HUI tomorrow via SDS and shorting GDX.
I'm waiting for a sharp Wave A down type move, then I'll look to go short in a countertrend Wave B type rebound. It's usually better to wait for the expected action (a clear sign and maybe even a 2% or 5% buy or sell signal in some cases, but not this one) then go short (or long) in a countertrend move. Also, I'll look for the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators to be bearish on an intraday basis.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since late November might have peaked today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note that Wave 3's rate of ascent clearly rolled over/flattened out today, with SPX putting in a bearish intraday double top today.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.09% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-10, was a bearish -0.33% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-7, and, was a bearish -0.74% versus SPX on 12-6.
The countertrend Wave B monthly or minor intermediate term upcycle should peak below 10-11-07's likely SPX Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI's Wave B of Wave C might have peaked today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c), note the bearish spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.37% versus the XAU today/on 12-10, was -0.86% versus the XAU on 12-7, +0.21% on 12-6, and -0.58% on 12-5.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
I'm waiting for a sharp Wave A down type move, then I'll look to go short in a countertrend Wave B type rebound. It's usually better to wait for the expected action (a clear sign and maybe even a 2% or 5% buy or sell signal in some cases, but not this one) then go short (or long) in a countertrend move. Also, I'll look for the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators to be bearish on an intraday basis.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) short term Wave 3 of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since late November might have peaked today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note that Wave 3's rate of ascent clearly rolled over/flattened out today, with SPX putting in a bearish intraday double top today.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.09% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-10, was a bearish -0.33% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-7, and, was a bearish -0.74% versus SPX on 12-6.
The countertrend Wave B monthly or minor intermediate term upcycle should peak below 10-11-07's likely SPX Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI's Wave B of Wave C might have peaked today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c), note the bearish spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.37% versus the XAU today/on 12-10, was -0.86% versus the XAU on 12-7, +0.21% on 12-6, and -0.58% on 12-5.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:12 PM
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