I Ended Up Day Trading NDX (NASDAQ 100) And HUI Short Today
I ended up day trading NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) and HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) short today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, it was one of the largest day trades I've ever done. I was in and out in less than two hours time. I didn't plan on day trading, it simply made sense based upon the very short term Wave A downcycle since late yesterday appearing to bottom late today.
I shorted late in the intraday Wave B (late in the session) and covered (sold QID in the case of NDX) very close to when the intraday Wave C type move (and very short term Wave A downcycle) appears to have bottomed very late in the session.
I bought QID, the Ultra Short NDX ETF, at an average price of 37.48, and, I sold it at an average price of 38.555, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=qid&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I shorted GDX at 46.52 and covered it at 46.2699, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
A very short term Wave A downcycle, that did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since late yesterday's Fed decision, appears to have bottomed late today (maybe Wave A of a short term Wave A), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
There should/probably will be a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle the next day or two. I might go short NDX (NASDAQ 100) and HUI again tomorrow or Friday.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.80% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-12. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.71% versus the XAU today/on 12-12.
Since NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) appears to have put in a third/final Wave 5 and therefore monthly cycle high, for the cycle since early November (SPX's began in late November), versus SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) having put in a second/Wave 3 cycle high, I'm going to short NDX via QID instead of shorting SPX via SDS. I'm also looking to short HUI again (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) via shorting GDX.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis. The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
I shorted late in the intraday Wave B (late in the session) and covered (sold QID in the case of NDX) very close to when the intraday Wave C type move (and very short term Wave A downcycle) appears to have bottomed very late in the session.
I bought QID, the Ultra Short NDX ETF, at an average price of 37.48, and, I sold it at an average price of 38.555, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=qid&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I shorted GDX at 46.52 and covered it at 46.2699, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
A very short term Wave A downcycle, that did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since late yesterday's Fed decision, appears to have bottomed late today (maybe Wave A of a short term Wave A), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
There should/probably will be a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle the next day or two. I might go short NDX (NASDAQ 100) and HUI again tomorrow or Friday.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.80% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-12. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.71% versus the XAU today/on 12-12.
Since NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) appears to have put in a third/final Wave 5 and therefore monthly cycle high, for the cycle since early November (SPX's began in late November), versus SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) having put in a second/Wave 3 cycle high, I'm going to short NDX via QID instead of shorting SPX via SDS. I'm also looking to short HUI again (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) via shorting GDX.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis. The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:17 PM
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