Reliable Lead Indicators NEM And WMT Appear To Have Bottomed
Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT appear to have bottomed today, note the bullish large inverse spikes on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT are probably leading to the upside, since the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators turned very bullish the past two days:
NEM Lead Indicator = +0.52% versus the XAU today/on 12-18 and +1.47% on 12-17, and, the WMT Lead Indicator = +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-18 and +1.92% on 12-17.
NEM probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 46.25 today (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), which is a bullish double bottom with yesterday's cycle low at 46.28. It's prudent to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 multi day upcycle/2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading NEM aggressively long.
NEM put in a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 37.91 in June 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, NEM is a gold/metals stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market.
NEM looks like it'll do an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. If so, I'll be looking to/might go long NEM (trade the short term Wave 1), if the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish when NEM bottoms.
WMT probably put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low today, for the minor intermediate term upcycle since early November, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT did an intraday Wave A down near session's end today. Once WMT completes an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle early tomorrow I'll be looking to/might go long WMT (trade the short term Wave 5), if the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish when WMT bottoms, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. They might have put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows today.
Gold is in Wave C of Wave C since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle high on 11-7-07, see GLD ETF at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld. Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside. I'm looking to short gold via shorting the GLD ETF.
Gold's bearish picture is much easier to see in the charts in Euro and Australian Dollar terms (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), since gold in those stronger currencies put in a countertrend Wave B bearish double top in early November with the 5-11-06 cycle highs (the November 2007 cycle high is modestly higher than May 2006's, but, the bearish double top is very similar to a Wave B cycle high, which is why I called it a Wave B cycle high, the real world isn't an exact science), versus gold in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms peaking in rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.
NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) is in the process of putting in a Wave A of Wave C cycle low (probably did today), for the intermediate term downcycle since late October. Wave A bottomed in early November. The countertrend Wave B peaked in early/mid December, at the time of Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision (note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern), so, Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle (since late October) has been in effect since Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision. Some time in the next week or so there should be a good opportunity to short NDX/catch Wave C of Wave C via the Ultra Short ETF QID, as NDX's Wave B of Wave C peaks.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Reliable Lead Indicators NEM and WMT are probably leading to the upside, since the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators turned very bullish the past two days:
NEM Lead Indicator = +0.52% versus the XAU today/on 12-18 and +1.47% on 12-17, and, the WMT Lead Indicator = +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-18 and +1.92% on 12-17.
NEM probably put in an intermediate term cycle low at 46.25 today (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem), which is a bullish double bottom with yesterday's cycle low at 46.28. It's prudent to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 multi day upcycle/2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading NEM aggressively long.
NEM put in a likely Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 37.91 in June 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, so, NEM is a gold/metals stock that's in a Cyclical Bull Market.
NEM looks like it'll do an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. If so, I'll be looking to/might go long NEM (trade the short term Wave 1), if the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish when NEM bottoms.
WMT probably put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low today, for the minor intermediate term upcycle since early November, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT did an intraday Wave A down near session's end today. Once WMT completes an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle early tomorrow I'll be looking to/might go long WMT (trade the short term Wave 5), if the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish when WMT bottoms, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. They might have put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows today.
Gold is in Wave C of Wave C since putting in a likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle high on 11-7-07, see GLD ETF at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld. Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside. I'm looking to short gold via shorting the GLD ETF.
Gold's bearish picture is much easier to see in the charts in Euro and Australian Dollar terms (http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), since gold in those stronger currencies put in a countertrend Wave B bearish double top in early November with the 5-11-06 cycle highs (the November 2007 cycle high is modestly higher than May 2006's, but, the bearish double top is very similar to a Wave B cycle high, which is why I called it a Wave B cycle high, the real world isn't an exact science), versus gold in US Dollar and Japanese Yen terms peaking in rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.
NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) is in the process of putting in a Wave A of Wave C cycle low (probably did today), for the intermediate term downcycle since late October. Wave A bottomed in early November. The countertrend Wave B peaked in early/mid December, at the time of Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision (note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern), so, Wave C of the intermediate term downcycle (since late October) has been in effect since Tuesday 12-11's Fed rate decision. Some time in the next week or so there should be a good opportunity to short NDX/catch Wave C of Wave C via the Ultra Short ETF QID, as NDX's Wave B of Wave C peaks.
SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1576.09 on 10-11-07, that occurred +1.30% above July's cycle high at 1555.90.
HUI/XAU put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The monetary inflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit boom from 2002 until early/mid 2006 (and the stock market Cyclical Bull Market from October 2002 until 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500) was another major factor) was the primary factor that drove gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until November 7, 2007.
Gold began to flounder after the 5-11-06 cycle high at $730, and, didn't exceed that cycle high until October 2007, due to the monetary inflation created by the Fed in order to fight the mortgage/credit crisis.
The current monetary deflation due to the real estate/mortgage/credit bust and SPX's (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market should result in a gold Bear market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:18 PM
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