Trade the Cycles

Monday, December 24, 2007

.........NDX (NASDAQ 100) Elliott Wave Count

See http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx. From July 2006 to late October 2007 (see chart 2 at link) NDX (NASDAQ 100) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up third/final Wave 5 long term upcycle (likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the cycle since October 2002). From late October to early/mid November NDX (NASDAQ 100) did a Wave A downcycle. From early/mid November to December 11's Fed rate decision NDX (NASDAQ 100) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up countertrend Wave B upcycle.

Then Wave A of Wave C bottomed on Tuesday 12-18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Looking at the 5 day intraday chart (see link above in this paragraph) NDX's (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) Wave B of Wave C appears to be peaking based on the Elliott Wave count, and, Friday's and today's flat intraday action is what tends to occur near important cycle highs. Also, today's spike at the open (began late Friday) looks like a final Wave 5 spike.

Additionally, the WMT Lead Indicator has been very bearish the past two sessions, at -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 12-21 and at -0.97% on 12-20. Plus, Cisco Systems (CSCO) chart is ugly (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?csco), it's Elliott Wave count points to CSCO/NDX weakness, it recently made a large bearish breakaway gap to the downside, and, it's been putting in many large bearish spikes on the daily candles.

So, I'm looking to aggressively short NDX (NASDAQ 100) via the ultra short ETF QID (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid), and, I'm looking to aggressively short gold via shorting the gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld).

For NDX (NASDAQ 100) I'm waiting for a sharp intraday Wave A down type move, then I'll look to go short during an intraday Wave B rebound. I'm simply waiting for the short term upcycle since 12-18 to clearly break down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

For gold I'm waiting for it's triangle formation since 11-7-07's likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $848 to break down, then I'll look to short an intraday countertrend Wave B rebound, see gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

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