Trade the Cycles

Friday, December 21, 2007

Euro Gold Bearish Long Term Double Top And The US Dollar Has Probably Bottomed

If you doubt that HUI/XAU/gold are in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 11-7-07 consider the Euro gold's bearish long term double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html), and, consider the fact that the US Dollar's Cyclical Bear Market since late 2005 probably bottomed in November 2007 (entered a Cyclical Bull Market), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/12/major-deflationary-factors-gold-wave-2.html, as well as the deflationary major economic/stock market downcycle.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .


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