Important HUI/XAU/Gold Update And Very Bearish WMT/NEM Lead Indicators (Updated - See Paragraph 4)
Most gold writers think HUI/XAU/gold have bottomed and that the "correction" is over. However, HUI/XAU/gold put in likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market and intermediate term (cycle began 8-16-07) cycle highs on 11-7-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, which means that HUI/XAU/gold are probably in a one yearish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market now.
HUI/XAU might have, but probably didn't, put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows on Tuesday 12-17, because, they didn't do Wave C of the short term Wave C yet (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07).
Note in HUI's (or the XAU's) chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) that, in the short term Wave A downcycle that occurred in November, there was a two session Wave B upcycle, with a large bearish spike occurring on the second day's candle. In the short term downcycle from 12-11-07 until 12-17-07 HUI/XAU didn't do a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, which means that a short term Wave C downcycle probably lies ahead for HUI/XAU, in which their Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07 will bottom.
Update: It's much easier to see the Elliott Wave count by looking at the XAU's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU clearly looks like it's in Wave B of the short term Wave C since 12-11-07. Therefore, the XAU's and HUI's Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07 probably didn't bottom yet. HUI's (long) short term Wave C began in late November.
HUI/XAU's Wave A intermediate term downcycle (since 11-7-07) not having bottomed yet jives with the expected bearish gold breakdown/mini crash below it's triangle formation, in effect since the 11-7-07 likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, see gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
Note that GLD rose to it's intermediate term downcycle trendline today, which obviously points to weakness on Monday. I'll be looking to short GLD on Monday.
Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-21, and, was a very bearish -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.08% versus the XAU today/on 12-21, and, was -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.
I'll be looking to day trade SPX or NDX short on Monday (short session I think, so I may not) via the SDS or QID Ultra Short ETFs.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/XAU might have, but probably didn't, put in Wave A intermediate term cycle lows on Tuesday 12-17, because, they didn't do Wave C of the short term Wave C yet (Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07).
Note in HUI's (or the XAU's) chart (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) that, in the short term Wave A downcycle that occurred in November, there was a two session Wave B upcycle, with a large bearish spike occurring on the second day's candle. In the short term downcycle from 12-11-07 until 12-17-07 HUI/XAU didn't do a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, which means that a short term Wave C downcycle probably lies ahead for HUI/XAU, in which their Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07 will bottom.
Update: It's much easier to see the Elliott Wave count by looking at the XAU's chart, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU clearly looks like it's in Wave B of the short term Wave C since 12-11-07. Therefore, the XAU's and HUI's Wave A intermediate term downcycle since 11-7-07 probably didn't bottom yet. HUI's (long) short term Wave C began in late November.
HUI/XAU's Wave A intermediate term downcycle (since 11-7-07) not having bottomed yet jives with the expected bearish gold breakdown/mini crash below it's triangle formation, in effect since the 11-7-07 likely Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high, see gold ETF GLD at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
Note that GLD rose to it's intermediate term downcycle trendline today, which obviously points to weakness on Monday. I'll be looking to short GLD on Monday.
Gold should soon fall dramatically, lagging HUI/XAU to the downside.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.92% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 12-21, and, was a very bearish -0.97% on 12-20, -0.19% on 12-19.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.08% versus the XAU today/on 12-21, and, was -0.18% on 12-20, -0.26% on 12-19.
I'll be looking to day trade SPX or NDX short on Monday (short session I think, so I may not) via the SDS or QID Ultra Short ETFs.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:27 PM
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