The Gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data Remains Bearish
The gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data remains bearish, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short (traded net short 12,456 gold futures and options contracts), trading a significant long position (added 8002 long gold futures and options contracts), correctly anticipating short term strength, but, continuing to go massively short (added 20,458 short gold futures and options contracts), as they've done in recent months.
So, the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is short term and long term bearish. Some significant gold strength this week wouldn't be surprising, but, it's very likely to be a great shorting opportunity.
The 5 day NEM Lead Indicator is an extremely bearish -5.35% versus the XAU, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 (note the strong follow through after bottoming and the bullish large inverse spike) after being in a Cyclical Bear Market for about two years/since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.
The Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html) provides a great picture of what's really going on in the gold sector, and, completely vindicates the "Trade the Cycles" market timing system. "Trade the Cycles" obviously didn't need to be vindicated, but, the Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007) provides a great picture of the reality of the gold sector versus all the goofy gold writer noise/nonsense out there.
As a long term investor all one needs to do is to draw trendlines/do very basic technical analysis and one can see that most gold writers are clowns and/or con artists when it comes to gold investing and trading.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
So, the gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is short term and long term bearish. Some significant gold strength this week wouldn't be surprising, but, it's very likely to be a great shorting opportunity.
The 5 day NEM Lead Indicator is an extremely bearish -5.35% versus the XAU, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 (note the strong follow through after bottoming and the bullish large inverse spike) after being in a Cyclical Bear Market for about two years/since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.
The Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007, see chart 3 at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html) provides a great picture of what's really going on in the gold sector, and, completely vindicates the "Trade the Cycles" market timing system. "Trade the Cycles" obviously didn't need to be vindicated, but, the Euro gold's long term bearish double top (May 2006/November 2007) provides a great picture of the reality of the gold sector versus all the goofy gold writer noise/nonsense out there.
As a long term investor all one needs to do is to draw trendlines/do very basic technical analysis and one can see that most gold writers are clowns and/or con artists when it comes to gold investing and trading.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:20 PM
1 Comments:
Dear Joe F ...... How would you address the claims made in this 12/28/07 article by Peter DeGraaf ? He makes a bull case based on low public interest in the Kitco gold site and expected shortcovering in GLD shares and Comex futures. If true, should there not be much more volume, if there was really all this shortcovering going on?? This is really confusing. ..... Happy New Year, Kathy
http://www.kitco.com/ind/degraaf/dec282007.html
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