WMT And SPX Are Trying To Establish Important Cycle Lows
WMT and SPX are trying to establish important cycle lows, with WMT trying to establish a monthly cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), and, with SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) trying to put in a Wave A cycle low of an intermediate term downcycle, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT may have put in a monthly cycle low at 45.73 on Friday (probably leading SPX, which may have hit a Wave A cycle low yesterday or today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's cycle low was 45.90 versus 45.80 yesterday. WMT will have to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that WMT has probably/very likely bottomed.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.71% versus SPX today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.81% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Here's StockCharts response to my inquiry as to why their October 2006 cycle high for WMT is 51.47 versus 52.15 for Yahoo/ASK Research:
"Thanks for contacting us. On our site, we adjust all historical price data downward to reflect stock splits, dividend payments, and mutual fund distributions. Adjusting prices, in our opinion, better captures the true price movement, creates a plot more reflective of the security's price action over time, and so, provides superior charts for technical analysis. On other sites, they chart the raw data.
If you'd like, you can read a more detailed explanation on this page of our Web site:
http://stockcharts.com/commentary/mailbag/mailbag20000804.htmlThanks again for using StockCharts.com, StockCharts Supportsupport@stockcharts.comhttp://stockcharts.com"
My thoughts (right now anyway) on their response is that there HAS to be one convention for stock price data used for charting or otherwise. I'll have to see if I can figure out how they arrived at 51.47 for the October 2006 cycle high versus the "raw" data's 52.15, and, there were a number of other differing price data points. I believe that the "raw data" does adjust for dividends when a stock goes ex dividend, so, that shouldn't be different from StockCharts to other sites.
I strongly believe that, until proven otherwise, 52.15 is the important and real price for the WMT October 2006 cycle high. That was a Wave 3 intermediate term cycle high. I think StockCharts is barking up the wrong tree and potentially hurting investors traders with potentially misleading data, but, I'll do some research and put more thought into it.
There NEEDS to be one (accurate) standard for stock price data, and, beyond that, I think the raw data is what's real and necessary for investors/traders.
Until WMT hits a monthly cycle buy signal one should be cautious, so, I'm not going to discuss the trading stocks much today, other than to say that ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), JRCC (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc), and JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso) probably hit monthly/minor intermediate term cycle lows a few sessions ago based on their Elliott Wave count and the fact that they hit monthly cycle buy signals. Looking to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up probably makes sense if you plan to trade these.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT may have put in a monthly cycle low at 45.73 on Friday (probably leading SPX, which may have hit a Wave A cycle low yesterday or today), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Today's cycle low was 45.90 versus 45.80 yesterday. WMT will have to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which would indicate that WMT has probably/very likely bottomed.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.71% versus SPX today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.81% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Here's StockCharts response to my inquiry as to why their October 2006 cycle high for WMT is 51.47 versus 52.15 for Yahoo/ASK Research:
"Thanks for contacting us. On our site, we adjust all historical price data downward to reflect stock splits, dividend payments, and mutual fund distributions. Adjusting prices, in our opinion, better captures the true price movement, creates a plot more reflective of the security's price action over time, and so, provides superior charts for technical analysis. On other sites, they chart the raw data.
If you'd like, you can read a more detailed explanation on this page of our Web site:
http://stockcharts.com/commentary/mailbag/mailbag20000804.htmlThanks again for using StockCharts.com, StockCharts Supportsupport@stockcharts.comhttp://stockcharts.com"
My thoughts (right now anyway) on their response is that there HAS to be one convention for stock price data used for charting or otherwise. I'll have to see if I can figure out how they arrived at 51.47 for the October 2006 cycle high versus the "raw" data's 52.15, and, there were a number of other differing price data points. I believe that the "raw data" does adjust for dividends when a stock goes ex dividend, so, that shouldn't be different from StockCharts to other sites.
I strongly believe that, until proven otherwise, 52.15 is the important and real price for the WMT October 2006 cycle high. That was a Wave 3 intermediate term cycle high. I think StockCharts is barking up the wrong tree and potentially hurting investors traders with potentially misleading data, but, I'll do some research and put more thought into it.
There NEEDS to be one (accurate) standard for stock price data, and, beyond that, I think the raw data is what's real and necessary for investors/traders.
Until WMT hits a monthly cycle buy signal one should be cautious, so, I'm not going to discuss the trading stocks much today, other than to say that ACI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci), JRCC (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc), and JASO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso) probably hit monthly/minor intermediate term cycle lows a few sessions ago based on their Elliott Wave count and the fact that they hit monthly cycle buy signals. Looking to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up probably makes sense if you plan to trade these.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:40 PM
