A Significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.74% Rise In Complacency Occurred For The XAU On Friday

XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.20% to 35.770 on Friday 9-22 from 36.205 on 9-21 versus a +0.46% rise in the XAU on 9-22, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.74% rise in complacency (-1.20% + +0.46% = -0.74%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.74%, therefore complacency rose by +0.74%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 9-25's session (complacency is usually contrarian, therefore normally portends weakness, until it reachs an unusually large level (> 6% increase) where it becomes non contrarian). That weakness/a downtrend could follow a gap up at the open and early strength. XAU Implied Volatility tends to indicate a trend/tone rather than necessarily a simplistic up or down session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is another very important indicator that may disagree with XAU Implied Volatility. These indicators must be used in concert with cycle channels/trendlines (very long term, cyclical Bull/Bear, long term, major intermediate term, minor intermediate term, monthly, short term, and very short term), which are the primary market timing consideration (Elliot Wave patterns and gaps are very important considerations that complement cycle channels/trendlines).

See the Trade the Cycles charts for cycle channels/trendlines used in concert with Elliot Wave patterns: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The reason why most "Elliot Wavers" fail is because they rarely understand cycles, hence they tend to get the Elliot Wave count wrong because they start at the wrong time. Any stocks that have completed an 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two are trading/investing candidates, then you do your due diligence. CDE for example completed a 16 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in mid 2005 if I remember correctly. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/.

XAU