The 100-110 XAU Cyclical Bear Market Wave A Cycle Low Target Range
The XAU's very long term upcycle/Secular Bull Market (since October 2000) uptrend line is currently at 80-85ish. See the second chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which is from February of this year. The 100-110 XAU Cyclical Bear Market Wave A cycle low target range is an educated guess based on the obvious assumption that Wave A doesn't bring the XAU down to it's very long term upcycle/Secular Bull Market uptrend line, otherwise the Cyclical Bear Market would be over, and, it won't be Wave A it would be Wave C.
The second chart from February shows that the Wave 5 long term upcycle was peaking, and, peaked on 5-11-06, which was a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the XAU and HUI (began late 2000). Reliable lead indicator NEM's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred on 1-31-06 (began October 2000).
The third chart shows the US Dollar putting in a major cycle low above it's previous one, indicating that the USD is in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, the fourth chart is the NEM Lead Indicator chart that reveals NEM dramatically leading to the downside months before the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for HUI/XAU.
There shouldn't be much relief for longs until Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM) bottoms in the 100-110 range (XAU) in the next few weeks. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU USD
The second chart from February shows that the Wave 5 long term upcycle was peaking, and, peaked on 5-11-06, which was a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the XAU and HUI (began late 2000). Reliable lead indicator NEM's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred on 1-31-06 (began October 2000).
The third chart shows the US Dollar putting in a major cycle low above it's previous one, indicating that the USD is in a Cyclical Bull Market, and, the fourth chart is the NEM Lead Indicator chart that reveals NEM dramatically leading to the downside months before the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for HUI/XAU.
There shouldn't be much relief for longs until Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM) bottoms in the 100-110 range (XAU) in the next few weeks. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU USD
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:45 AM
