XAU Implied Volatility And Put/Call Ratio Collapsing
XAU Implied Volatility has fallen from 39.095 on Thursday to 35.46 yesterday and the XAU Put/Call Ratio (October expiration) has collapsed from 1.01745 on Friday to 0.87327 today, which means that Friday's cycle lows for HUI/NEM/XAU may not have been Wave A cycle lows for the major correction since 9-6 for HUI/XAU (since 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM). Also, the NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish the past two days at -1.56% and -0.65% vs the XAU, plus, Fed Credit has been below average recently. So, there's no rush to go long right now.
Most of you shouldn't be trading wave B up of a major correction long anyway. But, there are many gold/silver stocks that remain in Cyclical Bull Markets. Any stocks that have completed 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Markets in the past year or two are trading/investing candidates, then you do your due diligence. CDE for example completed a 16 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in mid 2005 if I remember correctly.
The past thirteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -13.80% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major correction since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major correction since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major correction from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU Fed credit
Most of you shouldn't be trading wave B up of a major correction long anyway. But, there are many gold/silver stocks that remain in Cyclical Bull Markets. Any stocks that have completed 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Markets in the past year or two are trading/investing candidates, then you do your due diligence. CDE for example completed a 16 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in mid 2005 if I remember correctly.
The past thirteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -13.80% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major correction since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major correction since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major correction from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU Fed credit
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:12 AM
