A Significant Rise In Complacency Occurred On Friday For The XAU

XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.58% to 38.085 on Friday 9-15 from 39.095 on 9-14 versus a +0.67% rise in the XAU on 9-15, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.91% rise in complacency (-2.58% + +0.67% = -1.91%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -1.91%, therefore complacency rose by +1.91%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 9-18's session (complacency is usually contrarian, therefore normally portends weakness, until it reachs an unusually large level (> 6% increase) where it becomes non contrarian). That weakness/a downtrend could follow a gap up at the open and early strength. XAU Implied Volatility tends to indicate a trend/tone rather than necessarily a simplistic up or down session.

The past thirteen weeks the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -12.24% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major correction since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major correction since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major correction from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

HUI NEM XAU