Trade the Cycles

Thursday, September 14, 2006

...........NEM/XAU Downside Gap Filling Action

NEM filled it's downside gap created at yesterday's open at 45.23 and the XAU might have or probably will fill it's downside gap created at yesterday's open at 129.68. It looks like Wave A of the major correction (since 9-6 for HUI/XAU and since 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM) is still in effect, but is "relatively close" to a cycle low, which is a nice way of saying that there's probably another sharp plunge in store before Wave A of the major correction since 9-6 bottoms. Then Wave B up will probably last a week or two before another brutal decline/Wave C occurs and Wave A of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU (since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM) bottoms.

Last week reliable lead indicator NEM made a breakaway gap to the downside, opening at 50.10 on 9-7 versus 9-6's close at 50.91. NEM made another breakaway gap to the downside, opening at 47.27 on 9-11 versus Friday 9-8's close at 48.19.

The size of the gap, 92 cents, which was -1.91% below the previous day's close at 48.19, is why it's likely to be a breakaway gap. There shouldn't be much relief for longs until Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM) bottoms in the 100-110 range (XAU) in the next few weeks. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/