The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.65% Vs The XAU Today
There's a good chance based on the bearish NEM Lead Indicator that Wave A of the major correction since 9-6 for HUI/XAU is still in effect, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. But, HUI/NEM/XAU are probably close to a Wave A cycle low if one didn't occur today.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned very bullish (short term) since 9-7 (nearly +3.00% versus the XAU), the latest COT (Commitments Of Traders) is very bullish (short term), since the Commercial Traders traded net long in a big way, but, the unusually large (> 10% change) net short trade by the normally contrarian Speculators portends some weakness (when they trade with a lot of conviction they tend to be correct short term, as they were this week), see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, and, the Fed spiked the index fund trader punch in a big way yesterday and today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Very high volume is another sign of an imminent cycle low, that was discussed earlier today.
The past thirteen weeks the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -12.24% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on Wednesday 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on Tuesday 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major correction since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major correction since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major correction from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned very bullish (short term) since 9-7 (nearly +3.00% versus the XAU), the latest COT (Commitments Of Traders) is very bullish (short term), since the Commercial Traders traded net long in a big way, but, the unusually large (> 10% change) net short trade by the normally contrarian Speculators portends some weakness (when they trade with a lot of conviction they tend to be correct short term, as they were this week), see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, and, the Fed spiked the index fund trader punch in a big way yesterday and today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Very high volume is another sign of an imminent cycle low, that was discussed earlier today.
The past thirteen weeks the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -12.24% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on Wednesday 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on Tuesday 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major correction since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major correction since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major correction from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:20 PM
