Trade the Cycles

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

............NEM Takes Out Friday's Cycle Low !

Gadzooks batdude, this is a treacherous market. The buy the dips crowd (permabulls) is getting wrecked big time. NEM's cycle low so far today is 43.17 versus last Friday's 43.58. HUI is seriously testing last Friday's cycle low and the XAU may do so as well. Wave A down of the major correction since 9-6 for HUI/XAU (since 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM) lives until proven otherwise.

The past thirteen weeks and one day the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -13.80% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major correction since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major correction since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major correction from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/