...................Watch Today's Downside Gaps
At 43.19 for NEM and 123.94 for the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility portends some weakness today, because it fell modestly to 36.37 yesterday from 36.53 on Tuesday despite the XAU falling -0.65% yesterday, which is a significant rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio revealed an unusually large rise in fear today which portends weakness, rising more than 6% from 0.84470 yesterday to 0.91662 today. Add to this below average Fed Credit for a Thursday (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm), at $8 Billion versus the typical $13-14 Billion, and the fact that NEM and the XAU appear to be in the process of filling today's downside gaps, and there's no rush to even look to trade long. Fed credit was a measly $2 Billion the prior two days. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.21% vs the XAU yesterday, which indicates that more wave A downside today won't be surprising.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.03% vs the XAU on Tuesday. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.56% versus the XAU on Monday after being a bearish -0.65% versus the XAU on Friday. The past thirteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -12.56% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major downcycle since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major downcycle since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major downcycle from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.03% vs the XAU on Tuesday. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.56% versus the XAU on Monday after being a bearish -0.65% versus the XAU on Friday. The past thirteen weeks and three days the NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -12.56% versus the XAU. A vicious multi week decline, similar to the one that occurred from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU, began on 9-6 for HUI/XAU and on 9-5 for reliable lead indicator NEM. Wave A of this major downcycle since 9-6 may still be in effect (may last a few more sessions). Wave B up of the major downcycle since 9-6 might last over a week, Wave B in the prior major downcycle from 5-11-06 until 6-13-06 did, then it's time for the final Wave C down and another brutal decline for HUI/XAU, in which Wave A of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottoms, probably in the 100-110 range for the XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:04 AM
