Many Gold/Silver Stocks Remain In A Cyclical Bull Market
If you read this post before, I added a "bunch of stuff."
Many gold/silver stocks remain in a Cyclical Bull Market, which last about 3 to 6 years in a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle. In a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle there's likely to be 3 five yearish Cyclical Bull Markets corresponding to Elliot Waves 1 (ended 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM), 3, and 5, and, two 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Markets corresponding to Elliot Waves 2 and 4 down. Cyclical Bull Markets will tend to be much longer in a Secular Bull Market than in a Secular Bear Market, for obvious reasons.
Very long term upcycles and downcycles (Secular Bull and Bear Markets) last about 15-20 years. They average 17.2 years for the major averages according to some analysts I've read.
Elliot Wave works well and is highly useful ONLY if you understand cycles. See the Trade the Cycles charts and note the Elliot Wave patterns: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The reason why most "Elliot Wavers" fail is because they rarely understand cycles, hence they tend to get the Elliot Wave count wrong because they start at the wrong time.
Any stocks that have completed an 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two are trading/investing candidates, then you do your due diligence. CDE for example completed a 16 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in mid 2005 if I remember correctly. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
CDE gold silver
Many gold/silver stocks remain in a Cyclical Bull Market, which last about 3 to 6 years in a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle. In a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle there's likely to be 3 five yearish Cyclical Bull Markets corresponding to Elliot Waves 1 (ended 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU and 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM), 3, and 5, and, two 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Markets corresponding to Elliot Waves 2 and 4 down. Cyclical Bull Markets will tend to be much longer in a Secular Bull Market than in a Secular Bear Market, for obvious reasons.
Very long term upcycles and downcycles (Secular Bull and Bear Markets) last about 15-20 years. They average 17.2 years for the major averages according to some analysts I've read.
Elliot Wave works well and is highly useful ONLY if you understand cycles. See the Trade the Cycles charts and note the Elliot Wave patterns: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The reason why most "Elliot Wavers" fail is because they rarely understand cycles, hence they tend to get the Elliot Wave count wrong because they start at the wrong time.
Any stocks that have completed an 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two are trading/investing candidates, then you do your due diligence. CDE for example completed a 16 monthish Cyclical Bear Market in mid 2005 if I remember correctly. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
CDE gold silver
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:04 PM
