Today's Early Strength Was NEM Gap Filling Action
and the Wave 4 short term downcycle since 4-6 beginning relatively flat. NEM filled it's upside gap at 54.05 from Friday, while the XAU didn't, which confirms that it's a breakaway gap. A substantial decline is likely in Wave 4 to correct HUI/XAU's big Wave 3 short term upcycle. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +1.40% vs the XAU right now, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.70% to 34.175 on Friday 4-7 from 33.605 on 4-6 versus a -2.50% decline in the XAU on 4-7, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.80% rise in complacency (+1.70% + -2.50% = -0.80%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.80%, therefore complacency rose by +0.80%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 4-10's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +10.98% today to 1.05616 from 0.95164 on Friday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +1.40% vs the XAU right now, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.70% to 34.175 on Friday 4-7 from 33.605 on 4-6 versus a -2.50% decline in the XAU on 4-7, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.80% rise in complacency (+1.70% + -2.50% = -0.80%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.80%, therefore complacency rose by +0.80%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 4-10's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +10.98% today to 1.05616 from 0.95164 on Friday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:02 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home