The Monthly Upcycle's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle
The Monthly Upcycle's Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle began early last Thursday for NEM and yesterday for HUI/XAU. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.50% vs the XAU right now, was a very bearish -2.26% yesterday, and a bearish -0.87% on Friday. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility rose +2.74% to 34.735 on Monday 4-3 from 33.810 on Friday 3-31 versus a +0.79% rise in the XAU on 4-3, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +3.53% rise in fear (+2.74% + +0.79% = +3.53%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +3.53%, therefore fear rose by +3.53%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 4-4's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a sharp (2-2.99%) -2.20% today to 0.90131 from 0.92156 on Monday that portends some weakness today because it's a sharp rise in complacency. The Fed didn't spike the punch recently (though yesterday was a large $9 Billion 1 day Repo), which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility rose +2.74% to 34.735 on Monday 4-3 from 33.810 on Friday 3-31 versus a +0.79% rise in the XAU on 4-3, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +3.53% rise in fear (+2.74% + +0.79% = +3.53%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +3.53%, therefore fear rose by +3.53%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 4-4's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a sharp (2-2.99%) -2.20% today to 0.90131 from 0.92156 on Monday that portends some weakness today because it's a sharp rise in complacency. The Fed didn't spike the punch recently (though yesterday was a large $9 Billion 1 day Repo), which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:32 AM
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