The Monthly Upcycle's Big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle
The Monthly Upcycle's big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle made slightly higher cycle highs today for HUI/XAU but peaked last Thursday for NEM. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.85% to 34.440 on Tuesday 4-4 from 34.735 on Monday 4-3 versus a +0.82% rise in the XAU on 4-4, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) -0.03% rise in complacency (-0.85% + +0.82% = -0.03%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.03%, therefore complacency rose by +0.03%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 4-5's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +3.02% today to 0.92853 from 0.90131 on Tuesday that portends some strength today, because it's a very sharp rise in fear. The Fed didn't spike the punch recently, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is probably in effect or soon will be: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.85% to 34.440 on Tuesday 4-4 from 34.735 on Monday 4-3 versus a +0.82% rise in the XAU on 4-4, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) -0.03% rise in complacency (-0.85% + +0.82% = -0.03%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.03%, therefore complacency rose by +0.03%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 4-5's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +3.02% today to 0.92853 from 0.90131 on Tuesday that portends some strength today, because it's a very sharp rise in fear. The Fed didn't spike the punch recently, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is probably in effect or soon will be: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:48 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home