The Monthly Upcycle's Big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle
The Monthly Upcycle's big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle made higher cycle highs today for HUI/XAU and may have finally peaked, but, peaked last Thursday 3-30 for NEM, which is in Wave 5 up. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.10% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 146.89 from 4-6, at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 53.23 from 4-6, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.67% to 34.210 on Wednesday 4-5 from 34.440 on Tuesday 4-4 versus a +2.06% rise in the XAU on 4-5, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.39% rise in fear (-0.67% + +2.06% = +1.39%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +1.39%, therefore fear rose by +1.39%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 4-6's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -3.49% today to 0.89615 from 0.92853 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today, because it's a very sharp rise in complacency. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.10% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 146.89 from 4-6, at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 53.23 from 4-6, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.67% to 34.210 on Wednesday 4-5 from 34.440 on Tuesday 4-4 versus a +2.06% rise in the XAU on 4-5, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.39% rise in fear (-0.67% + +2.06% = +1.39%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +1.39%, therefore fear rose by +1.39%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 4-6's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -3.49% today to 0.89615 from 0.92853 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today, because it's a very sharp rise in complacency. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:48 AM
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