...........Big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle Peaked
The Monthly Upcycle's big Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle appears to have finally peaked yesterday for HUI/XAU, but, peaked Thursday 3-30 for NEM, which is in Wave 5 up. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The XAU and possibly also NEM have what appear to be breakaway gaps (gapped down so they're upside gaps) today that probably won't get filled in the next few days. I don't rule out the possibility that the monthly upcycle since 3-10-06 has peaked, but HUI and the XAU appear to have just finished a big Wave 3 short term upcycle, so, Wave 5 should still lie ahead. Today's COT data release may shed some light. Given the Big Wave 3 a substantial downcycle is likely even if a monthly upcycle remains in effect.
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.10% vs the XAU right now, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon. A couple of downside gaps were filled today.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.77% to 33.605 on Thursday 4-6 from 34.210 on Wednesday 4-5 versus a +1.57% rise in the XAU on 4-6, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) +0.20% rise in complacency (-1.77% + +1.57% = -0.20%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.20%, therefore complacency rose by +0.20%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 4-7's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +6.19% today to 0.95164 from 0.89615 on Thursday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside.The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.10% vs the XAU right now, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.62 from 4-3, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon. A couple of downside gaps were filled today.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.77% to 33.605 on Thursday 4-6 from 34.210 on Wednesday 4-5 versus a +1.57% rise in the XAU on 4-6, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) +0.20% rise in complacency (-1.77% + +1.57% = -0.20%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.20%, therefore complacency rose by +0.20%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 4-7's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +6.19% today to 0.95164 from 0.89615 on Thursday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual on Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:35 AM
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