Trade the Cycles

Saturday, April 08, 2006

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle since Thursday. I now believe that NEM is also in Wave 4 versus Wave 5 up. NEM filled it's downside gap last week then shot back up to finish it's Wave 3 short term upcycle. The very sharp drop during the gap filling action made it look like Wave 4 down, but it was probably still Wave 3 up, and, it appears that way on the latest 1 year NEM chart dated 4-7-06. The latest COT data is very bearish. The gold Commercial Traders sold 2200 long futures and options contracts and added a large 20,657 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). Given HUI/XAU's big Wave 3/spike move and bearish COT data, a substantial decline in the Wave 4 short term downcycle is likely. See 5 day HUI chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/