The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bullish +0.48% Vs The XAU Today
The Wave 4 short term downcycle began on 4-6 for HUI/NEM/XAU. NEM filled it's upside gap at 54.05 from Friday during Monday's session, while the XAU didn't, which confirms that it's a breakaway gap. There was a lot of NEM sell interest again today: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=12&y=8 A substantial decline is likely in Wave 4 to correct HUI/XAU's big Wave 3 short term upcycle that peaked last Thursday 4-6. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.48% vs the XAU on 4-12, was a bearish -0.26% vs the XAU on 4-11, was a bullish +0.69% on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.83% to 34.425 on Tuesday 4-11 from 35.065 on Monday 4-10 versus a -2.46% decline in the XAU on 4-11, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.29% rise in complacency (-1.83% + -2.46% = -4.29%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.29%, therefore complacency rose by +4.29%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 4-12's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (o.50-1.99%) -1.77% today to 1.02474 from 1.04317 on Tuesday that portends some weakness today, because it's a significant rise in complacency. The Fed spiked the punch as usual last Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.48% vs the XAU on 4-12, was a bearish -0.26% vs the XAU on 4-11, was a bullish +0.69% on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.83% to 34.425 on Tuesday 4-11 from 35.065 on Monday 4-10 versus a -2.46% decline in the XAU on 4-11, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.29% rise in complacency (-1.83% + -2.46% = -4.29%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.29%, therefore complacency rose by +4.29%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 4-12's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (o.50-1.99%) -1.77% today to 1.02474 from 1.04317 on Tuesday that portends some weakness today, because it's a significant rise in complacency. The Fed spiked the punch as usual last Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:21 PM
4 Comments:
Garry, it was filled. Thanks. Joe
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:55 PM
To answer your previous 64K dollar question, I have no idea, but I have a couple thousand in the wings to go long options with assuming there's a C down to come. This wave 4 down so far has not compensated for the wave 3 up. The proviso is that the wave 3 up did not reach the highs I thought it would with POG challenging $600. So I'm still long cycle long, intermediate cycle long, and short term trading in cash (see rules - I need the cycle I'm trading plus the one above in the same direction, and we don't have a new 5 up confirmation yet).
The COTs are the tiebreakers. There hasn't been enough decline to make them any money. Someday they will be very wrong and it will be squeeze time - until then I'll keep the working assumption that they are not idiots.
By
Jeff, at 4:44 PM
I've been a wuss, playing way in the money options relatively long range. I have a fear of high premiums combined with a fear of needing a long cycle bailout in the worst case.
If I ever got the confidence to do those short range ones, I suppose I could be dangerous....in the hospital being treated for a stroke...but dangerous.
I know my own weakness, and that's being significantly early with every call. Next step is to cure the problem.
Maybe we should plan now for how to play the 5 up, with a little high risk $$ willing to kiss goodbye or make a ton.
If POG overshoots past 620/30 at the same time as a gold stock wave 5, it could be one heck of a wave 5.
By
Jeff, at 5:42 PM
Garry,
Have to run, but I think we should keep trading vehicle specifics off of Joes' site unless he wants to use the. Therefore, I'll be in touch very soon.
By
Jeff, at 6:44 AM
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