The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.26% Vs The XAU Today
Was +0.69% vs the XAU on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. HUI/NEM/XAU are in the Wave 4 short term downcycle since last Thursday. A very sharp decline has begun which will correct the big Wave 3 short term upcycle. There's been a lot of NEM sell interest at Lycos Thomson I Watch the past week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=13&y=5 Also, the Gold Commercial Traders were aggressive short sellers last week and sold a significant % of their long position, which points to substantial weakness this week. See 5 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= .......... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:25 PM
5 Comments:
133ish has been a recurring theme on the up and the down.
When fibs, trendlines, and MAs are all in the same area, then watch out. I don't believe in all of it, but with everyone in the market watching one or more of those, they become self-fulfilling.
By
Jeff, at 4:33 PM
Garry,
Not much time right now, but that is on the low side for the 5-5-1 blow off. I'm looking at 172, 178, and 185, and 211, assuming we have this wave 5 right and depending on the timing (May versus July, for example), which moves the lines.
Something keeps telling me that such highs would have to coincide with bad geopolitics or a heck of a summer gas spike to come about, and a warning - they do not seem to coincide with my $650 limit on the gold high for this long cycle.
Since lots of my thoughts contradict, something has to give.
By
Jeff, at 6:27 PM
BTW,
nice gutsy job on those puts. I try to keep myself from trading inside the monthlies, because if I have a bunch of hearings or depos, I'm screwed because I miss the trades out.
Just decide now whether you intend to get rid of them in profit zone on the A down, or hold through a B up and C down for a chance at bigger profits, but a possible coronary on the B up. Those are the parts that give me an itchy trigger finger, especially trading against 5 ups on the longer cycles, which means surprises would tend to be on the upside, especially with strange political and weather situations.
Give me puts at the high end of a channel on an A down inside a longer term A down any day, though.
By
Jeff, at 6:35 PM
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By
Jeff, at 12:19 PM
Sometimes - but I have found that the following "rules" work best for me:
(1) Trade most of positions on long-intermediate cycles.
(2) Trade the greater portion when the long-intermediate cycle and the long cycle are in the same trend. Trade less when they are in contrasting trends.
(3) Devote a small portion to shorter term (monthly) trading.
(4) With shorter term trading, concentrate on when the shorter (monthly) cycles coincide with long cycles. That way, there's a bailout possibility even if the trade is mis-timed.
(5) Whenever trading against a trend in a cycle longer than the one being traded, use options only.
(6) Leave the very short cycles to Joe. ;)
Beware the puts - NEM lead indicator rocks and rolls today!
By
Jeff, at 12:21 PM
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