The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.63% Vs The XAU Today
The Wave 4 short term downcycle began on 4-6 for HUI/NEM/XAU. There was a lot of NEM sell interest again today: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=12&y=8 A substantial decline is likely in Wave 4 to correct HUI/XAU's big Wave 3 short term upcycle that peaked Thursday 4-6. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.63% vs the XAU today, was a bullish +0.48% vs the XAU on 4-12, was a bearish -0.26% vs the XAU on 4-11, was a bullish +0.69% on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.35% to 34.305 on Wednesday 4-12 from 34.425 on Tuesday 4-11 versus a +2.42% rise in the XAU on 4-12, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.07% rise in fear (-0.35% + +2.42% = +2.07%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.07%, therefore fear rose by +2.07%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 4-12's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +7.62% today to 1.10287 from 1.02474 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual today/Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) is in Wave 5, so the surprises will tend to be to the upside. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.63% vs the XAU today, was a bullish +0.48% vs the XAU on 4-12, was a bearish -0.26% vs the XAU on 4-11, was a bullish +0.69% on 4-10, was a neutral +0.08% on 4-7, was a neutral -0.03% on 4-6, was a bullish +0.80% on 4-5, was a bullish +0.39% on 4-4, was a very bearish -2.26% on 4-3, and a bearish -0.87% on 3-31. The XAU has downside gaps at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.35% to 34.305 on Wednesday 4-12 from 34.425 on Tuesday 4-11 versus a +2.42% rise in the XAU on 4-12, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.07% rise in fear (-0.35% + +2.42% = +2.07%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.07%, therefore fear rose by +2.07%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 4-12's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +7.62% today to 1.10287 from 1.02474 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today, because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed spiked the punch as usual today/Thursday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:04 PM
1 Comments:
Betts,
I disagree a little. We are within a monthly cycle when I'm talking about this decline. I don't see the last decline (monthly wave 2) as being all that sharp. I charted it as one week and a decline from the low 130's to the high 120's. A decent percentage of retracement, to be sure, but in context of recent volatility, it's only a day's trading range worth of movement. And the gap fill in the low/mid 130's was unconvincing to me - looked more like a bounce off than a fill.
All that said, Garry is right about the bias being up, and also I don't trade for 5 points - as Garry noted, I tend to do the longer cycles and then just hedge/supplement with trading positions. Whether it is 133 or 138 is not material to me - I trade monthlies, but don't really trade *within* the monthlies. My trading position amounts are so low that when I tried to trade within the monthlies, my trades were okay, but commissions and dealer spreads ate it up and it was interfering with work.
Also, I haven't been trading the indices in a while - this cycle I went for the components. I may change that for the next monthly and go back to the indices.
By
Jeff, at 7:35 AM
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