...................Indicators Point To Some Strength Today After The Downside Gap Filling Action

The most important thing to keep in mind now is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU entered the Elliot Wave C short term downcycle of their monthly downcycles that began on 12-12. After a likely rebound today they should experience a dramatic decline during much of the remainder of the week, because this is the parabolic/sharply declining segment of the monthly downcycle. Monthly cycle lows may occur this week or early next week in the 235-245 (HUI), 45-47 (NEM), and 109-114 (XAU) target ranges, based on their major int term upcycle trendlines since 5-16-05. I'm looking to "get my shorts on" for a few days by buying XAU Puts today.

Notice that once again early today SPX weakness made SPX index funds sell NEM (and made other index funds sell other gold/silver stocks) and therefore led to general gold/silver stock weakness. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=%5EGSPC

The NEM Lead Indicator is modestly bearish right now at -0.15% after being bullish yesterday at +0.26%. Keep in mind that indicators portend more strength in short term upcycles versus downcycles and of course the monthly cycle has turned down, so less strength is likely in a monthly downcycle than a monthly upcycle, which is another consideration.

XAU Implied Volatility rose +2.19% to 31.935 on Monday 12-19 from 31.250 on 12-16 versus a -0.95% decline in the XAU on 12-19, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) 1.24% rise in fear (+2.19% + -0.95% = +1.24%. The XAU wall of worry grew by 1.24%, therefore fear rose by +1.24%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 12-20's session.

The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose a significant (0.50-1.99%) 1.68% to 1.28392 today from 1.26264 on 12-19 which is a significant rise in fear that portends some strength today. Ciao