Trade the Cycles

Friday, December 16, 2005

Looks Like There's At Least Another Day Or Two Of Upside Left In Elliot Wave B

Before SPX probably plunges and drags NEM and therefore HUI and the XAU with it due to SPX index funds selling NEM. It doesn't look like HUI, NEM, and the XAU will make a higher monthly cycle high in rollover mode as occurred in late September due to SPX strength. This time it looks like SPX weakness will be a major drag on NEM and therefore HUI and the XAU. The good news is that it should speed up the monthly/minor int term cycle process and cause a monthly cycle low to occur sooner.

The short term upcycle is still relatively flat (see link) so Monday may be a sharp rise as it probably enters the parabolic segment.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=

NEM underperformed the XAU today by -0.24% which isn't enough to suggest that a short term cycle high is imminent, meaning that one probably won't occur early on Monday unless there's a big spike move early on, which is possible and probably more likely on a Monday due to overeager lambs/dumb money potentially rushing in.

VIX fell -0.47% today versus SPX falling slightly which is a significant rise in complacency that points to some SPX weakness on Monday. SPX weakness may be prolonging HUI, NEM, and the XAU's short term upcycle by holding it back due to index funds selling NEM. The COT data is basically bullish with the gold Commercial Traders trading net long and the Speculators trading net short, but the gold Commercial Traders did add significantly to their short position. Ciao

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