................NEM Outperformed The XAU By +0.19% Today
An Elliot Wave B short term upcycle within a monthly downcycle (or potentially (but probably not) a monthly upcycle rolling over) probably began today because a 1% follow through short term cycle buy signal occurred today for HUI, NEM, and the XAU, but, in a monthly downcycle or following a monthly cycle sell signal (one occurred on 12-9) with a monthly upcycle rolling over, short term upcycles are obviously much riskier for short term trading than in a monthly upcycle prior to a sell signal, so the short term cycle buy signal is a risky one.
The S & P 500 Volatility Index (gauge of SPX options implied volatility) shot up +2.48% vs a -0.141 % drop in SPX which is a sharp rise in fear that points to some strength in SPX tomorrow that should help HUI, NEM, and the XAU, because SPX index funds will be buying NEM if SPX strength occurs.
The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bullish recently at +0.19% vs the XAU today, +0.36% yesterday, +0.38% vs the XAU on 12-13, and +1.46% on Monday on top of +1.06% last week, which, combined with HUI and the XAU's very sharp volatility spikes that began Monday and ended early Tuesday as well as yesterday's plunge, points to a sharp rebound and possibly even a test of Monday's likely monthly cycle highs in the near future. The test seems unlikely right now due to the likelihood of SPX index funds selling NEM the next few days, though some strength is likely tomorrow. Ciao
The S & P 500 Volatility Index (gauge of SPX options implied volatility) shot up +2.48% vs a -0.141 % drop in SPX which is a sharp rise in fear that points to some strength in SPX tomorrow that should help HUI, NEM, and the XAU, because SPX index funds will be buying NEM if SPX strength occurs.
The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bullish recently at +0.19% vs the XAU today, +0.36% yesterday, +0.38% vs the XAU on 12-13, and +1.46% on Monday on top of +1.06% last week, which, combined with HUI and the XAU's very sharp volatility spikes that began Monday and ended early Tuesday as well as yesterday's plunge, points to a sharp rebound and possibly even a test of Monday's likely monthly cycle highs in the near future. The test seems unlikely right now due to the likelihood of SPX index funds selling NEM the next few days, though some strength is likely tomorrow. Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:07 PM
5 Comments:
Hi Joe,
Short intermediate POG gaps to fill??
B up to 521, C down to 482 or 472?
By
Jeff, at 7:22 PM
Hi Jeff,
Your scenario looks good. Gold's major intermediate term upcycle trendline is at 470ish now, so it could fall to the 470-480 range in EW C and fill one or both of those gaps. Ciao.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:37 PM
I was initially thinking that the 470's make the long intermediate pretty flat, and gives up too large an amount of the last monthly gains, and takes POG well below some important fibs. On the other hand, if the cycles are getting longer, and if I am hoping for this one to last into spring, flatter (even if volatile as heck) is better for now.
In any event, if this is still the A down, $25 more to the downside on the C than where we are right now in the next weekly isn't so unreasonable.
By
Jeff, at 8:30 PM
Jeff,
Gold's major int term upcycle trendline has already increased in strength a few times. I think 470-480 is a good target range for EW C down. As I said in my first comment your scenario looks good. Ciao
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:42 PM
Christian,
I can't provide individual advice, but my system/work correctly expected NEM strength today, with a high so far of 50.68.
English is unfortunately the only language I'm fluent in. Please tell your friends in Switzerland and elsewhere about this Blog and my site. Thank you and good luck. Ciao
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:07 AM
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