..................Has A Risky Short Term Upcycle Begun?
HUI, NEM, and the XAU spiked at the open and are rolling over/flattening out as I write this. They have downside gaps created at the open at 252.77, 49.51, and 119.90. If it wasn't for the downside gaps I'd say that an Elliot Wave B short term upcycle of a likely monthly downcycle (or potentially a monthly upcycle rolling over) has probably begun, so I'm waiting to see if the downside gaps get filled before looking to day trade XAU Calls long.
Since SPX appears like it's about to do an Elliot Wave A plunge of an A, B, C monthly downcycle that should prevent HUI, NEM, and the XAU from making higher monthly cycle highs because SPX index funds will be selling NEM, but the fact that the NEM Lead Indicator has been very bullish recently makes things interesting. The timing of SPX's Elliot Wave B up may be important depending on where HUI, NEM, and the XAU are when it begins. It appears, right now at least, that HUI, NEM, and the XAU's monthly cycle highs occurred on Monday and that a headfake higher monthly cycle high due to SPX index funds buying NEM won't occur in this monthly cycle as it did in the previous monthly cycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bullish recently at +0.30% vs the XAU so far today, +0.36% yesterday, +0.38% vs the XAU on 12-13, and +1.46% on Monday on top of +1.06% last week, which, combined with HUI and the XAU's very sharp volatility spikes that began Monday and ended early Tuesday as well as yesterday's plunge, points to a sharp rebound and possibly even a test of Monday's likely monthly cycle highs in the near future. The test seems unlikely right now due to the likelihood of SPX index funds selling NEM the next few days.
XAU Implied Volatility fell to 32.765 yesterday from 33.82 on 12-13 vs a sharp -2.48% decline in the XAU yesterday which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness/a downtrend today.The XAU Put/Call Ratio points to some strength (an uptrend) today by rising very sharply (3-6%) to 0.94581 from 0.90550 yesterday (December expiration). Ciao
Since SPX appears like it's about to do an Elliot Wave A plunge of an A, B, C monthly downcycle that should prevent HUI, NEM, and the XAU from making higher monthly cycle highs because SPX index funds will be selling NEM, but the fact that the NEM Lead Indicator has been very bullish recently makes things interesting. The timing of SPX's Elliot Wave B up may be important depending on where HUI, NEM, and the XAU are when it begins. It appears, right now at least, that HUI, NEM, and the XAU's monthly cycle highs occurred on Monday and that a headfake higher monthly cycle high due to SPX index funds buying NEM won't occur in this monthly cycle as it did in the previous monthly cycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bullish recently at +0.30% vs the XAU so far today, +0.36% yesterday, +0.38% vs the XAU on 12-13, and +1.46% on Monday on top of +1.06% last week, which, combined with HUI and the XAU's very sharp volatility spikes that began Monday and ended early Tuesday as well as yesterday's plunge, points to a sharp rebound and possibly even a test of Monday's likely monthly cycle highs in the near future. The test seems unlikely right now due to the likelihood of SPX index funds selling NEM the next few days.
XAU Implied Volatility fell to 32.765 yesterday from 33.82 on 12-13 vs a sharp -2.48% decline in the XAU yesterday which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness/a downtrend today.The XAU Put/Call Ratio points to some strength (an uptrend) today by rising very sharply (3-6%) to 0.94581 from 0.90550 yesterday (December expiration). Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:03 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home