....................................Early Gap Filling Action

NEM filled it's downside gap created at yesterday's open early on, and, NEM and the XAU are likely to fill the upside gaps they created at today's open (NEM already has), then put in lower highs than yesterday's likely Elliot Wave 5 short term cycle highs that could also be monthly cycle highs.

Some interesting positives now that indicate a higher monthly cycle high may occur in the next week or so in rollover mode, on the relatively flat part of the monthly cycle's curve, are that the NEM Lead Indicator is very bullish now at +1.46% yesterday and at +0.10% so far today. This points to a sharp rebound today that's occurring as I write this. Until the NEM Lead Indicator turns bearish a substantial decline is unlikely.

Another interesting positive is that XAU Implied Volatility experienced an unusually large (> 6%) rise to 33.945 yesterday from 28.835 on 12-9 which is an unusually large rise in fear that correctly portended some weakness today, but the spike in XAU Implied Volatility typically points to strength in the near future.

The XAU Put/Call Ratio correctly pointed to some strength today by rising to 0.90467 from 0.89875 yesterday.

Long term cycle high targets likely to be achieved in the May 2006 timeframe (based on the fact that the long term cycles have been getting longer) based on extrapolating the previous long term cycle highs since the late 2000 very long term cycle lows are 330-350 for HUI, 70-75 for NEM, and 150-160 for the XAU. The previous long term cycle highs at 258.60 for HUI, 50.28 for NEM, and at 113.41 for the XAU that occurred in Dec 2003/Jan 2004 were just exceeded last week, so it's very unlikely that yesterday's cycle highs or those that may occur in the next week or so are long term cycle highs. Ignore the noise and chatter that's going on (you can't guess this stuff) and stay with a disciplined approach using cycle trendlines. Good luck.