........................More Weakness Likely On Monday
The NEM Lead Indicator was bearish at -0.23% on Friday 12-9. XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.14% to 29.835 on Friday 12-9 from 30.180 on 12-8 versus a -1.00% decline in the XAU on 12-9, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) 2.14% rise in complacency (-1.14% + -1.00% = -2.14%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.14%, therefore complacency rose by +2.14%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 12-12's session. The unusually large (> 6%) rise in the XAU Put/Call Ratio (Dec expiration) the past two sessions from 0.62820 to 0.83370 points to a substantial decline in the XAU in the near future because it's an unusually large rise in fear.
The COT data is basically bearish with the gold Commercial Traders trading net short and the gold Speculators trading net long, but the unusually large (> 10% increase in long position) long liquidation by the Commercial Traders points to some short term strength, but some of that strength has already occurred because the data is as of Tuesday 12-6. The gold Commercial Traders sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 14,042 (added 17,312 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 5276 (added 16,229 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long liquidation is a short term contrarian indication and the short covering also points to strength, but the net short increase points to weakness following that strength and most or all of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days stale when released. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 9102 (sold 2697 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and added 566 (added 2309 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).
The COT data is basically bearish with the gold Commercial Traders trading net short and the gold Speculators trading net long, but the unusually large (> 10% increase in long position) long liquidation by the Commercial Traders points to some short term strength, but some of that strength has already occurred because the data is as of Tuesday 12-6. The gold Commercial Traders sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 14,042 (added 17,312 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 5276 (added 16,229 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long liquidation is a short term contrarian indication and the short covering also points to strength, but the net short increase points to weakness following that strength and most or all of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days stale when released. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 9102 (sold 2697 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and added 566 (added 2309 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:32 AM
1 Comments:
Alice,
Yes, but when a major sell signal occurs, 5% follow through after the major upcycle trendline since May 16 breaks down, it occurs. Cycle trendlines are the primary consideration. Observations are secondary. But, yes, based on the fact that the long term cycles have been getting longer May 2006 is a good estimate as to when a long term cycle high will occur.
Monthly cycle is an easier way of saying minor intermediate term cycle. Good luck. Joe
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:12 PM
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